If you’ve never heard of or read a report from John Williams, then today is your (un)lucky day. Mr. Williams’, founder of Shadow Stats, is the economic analyst that has brought us the real, unadultered statistics for unemployment (22%) and real GDP (-5.5%) and Inflation (6%).
According to Mr. Williams’ most recent report on the economy, things are not as good as they may seem. In fact, they’re a whole lot worse than what most people can even imagine.
The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold.
It could not get any more serious than this. If Mr. Williams’ is correct, and his stats and analysis have proven to be right on target thus far, then we are in for what Gerald Celente has said will be like nothing we’ve ever seen in our lifetime.
Looking at each of Mr. William’s points from a worst case scenario perspective, here are some things one can expect.
If Mr. Williams’ forecast plays out as described, then preparation will be a key to survival. As Mr. Williams points out, and many observers feel deep down, the problems that have been pushed into the future have now come home to roost:
Indeed, pushing the big problems into the future appears to have been the working strategy for both the Fed and recent Administrations. Yet, the U.S. dollar and the budget deficit do matter, and the future is at hand. The day of ultimate financial reckoning has arrived, and it is playing out.
How much time do we have? We have heard Dr. Marc Faber, who suggests that it could happen quickly, by 2012, or even later, around 2018. Mr. Williams, has recently adjusted his timelines based on the data he is interpreting:
The intensifying economic and solvency crises, and the responses to both by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve in the last two years, have exacerbated the government’s solvency issues and moved forward my timing estimation for the hyperinflation to the next five years, from the 2010 to 2018 timing range estimated in the prior report. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve already have committed the system to this course through the easy politics of a bottomless pocketbook, the servicing of big-moneyed special interests, gross mismanagement, and a deliberate and ongoing effort to debase the U.S. currency. Accordingly, risks are particularly high of the hyperinflation crisis breaking within the next year.
This may not necessarily mean that by the end of 2010 we will be living like Road Warriors, but the system is under so much pressure, that we may begin to see the initial effects very soon, as discussed above.
For those who hope for change, we’re sorry to inform you that it isn’t coming, because it is too late:
The U.S. has no way of avoiding a financial Armageddon. Bankrupt sovereign states most commonly use the currency printing press as a solution to not having enough money to cover obligations. The alternative would be for the U.S. to renege on its existing debt and obligations, a solution for modern sovereign states rarely seen outside of governments overthrown in revolution, and a solution with no happier ending than simply printing the needed money. With the creation of massive amounts of new fiat dollars (not backed by gold or silver) will come the eventual destruction of the value of the U.S. dollar and related dollar-denominated paper assets.
Folks, if Mr. Williams and others are right about this, then I am afraid that we are going to experience something in the United States that will be written about for centuries in the history books (if the whole planet doesn’t get wiped out by a nuke war before it’s all said and done).
What can be done now? The answer is nothing. It is just time.
Zero Hedge opines:
Take away the fiat illusion, and the real value collapses to those concepts of tangible value that will remain in a post bubble implosion scenario: whether these be spam, gold, or lead.
We’ll be publishing a basic primer on prepping your SHTF Plan for Hyperinflationary collapse, but for now, we urge our readers to consider Mr. Williams’ analysis and take some advice from Zero Hedge. Consider reserve foods (plug: www.readynutrition.com) and precious metals (gold, 1 oz silver coins, 90% silver quarters/dimes available at ebay.com for fair market prices). Of course there are other preps that one can make, including the acquisition of self defense weapons and finding a longer-term bug out locations outside of major cities. You do not want to be in suburbia if the above scenarios unfold.
When it hits the fan, don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Via Zero Hedge. Thanks to Tom of the North for the update.
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Does anybody know of any reputable and cheap(er) sites to buy silver coins? And what kind of silver coins are good to buy? I looked at Mike Maloney’s website but I feel like he has a huge premium over spot. I only own silver ETF’s and mining companies but I want exposure to coins.  Any ideas from you SHTFers? (is that a word?)
PRE, 1965 coins are 90% silver which makes them good !
I sell food and commodities all day long and I can tell you basic commodities (sugar and cooking oils and rice) are on the rise. 8 weeks ago 50# sugar was $19.00 today it is $27.00 (sound like hyperinflation to you). Cooking oil and rice increasing as well. Good luck in 2010!
KingKang — It depends on the kind of exposure you want. If you’re looking for large volume ($10,000 plus), the best in the biz is http://www.tulving.com … If you are looking for bars and bullion rounds or government issued rounds, I’d reco Apmex.com … the premiums are there, but not as high as others. If you’re looking for 90% silver quarters/dimes/halves, check out ebay.com.. Sometimes you can get those right at spot price there… I think ebay is cool for small purchases, especially if you are buying from top power sellers, but my personal choice if you were looking govt coins, 1 oz gold bars, and similar PM’s would be Apmex.com
J. Law — it sounds just like inflation to me, though I am not seeing it in any of the government released stats. While we have been cutting down on our weekly food budget, it seems to me that $100 doesn’t buy as many groceries as it did a year or two ago… I could be wrong, but that’s the feeling I get when I walk out the store. Especially if you’re buying fruit, meat, or commodities like you mentioned.
APMEX is good and I do buy from them but … their shipping prices are a bit high. Provident Metals is better in shipping and often in price as well.
All these kids on college today, what a joke! “The College Diploma” that is printed on paper, is going the same way as the fiat dollar.
I am 21 years old and I left college to start preparing for this decades long depression. Instead of learning how to get drunk and pass out for 4+ very expensive years, I have decided to start learning REAL skills (Agriculture, Survival SKills, health and fitness, etc) that will be applicable to the future economy.
I wrote a trend forecast on “The College Bubble”, the people that post on this site seem very intelligent. If you have time please read and comment with your thoughts on my forecast.
http://www.conservativedailyblog.com/2009/11/trend-forecast-college-bubble-will.html
>The Federal Reserve is dedicated to … debasing the U.S. dollar.
Weird, I thought debasing US currency was a felony punishable by death under the Coinage Act. I guess nowadays it’s a career choice and badge of honor.
That’s DEFACING…not debasing!
bulliondirect.com is also a good place to buy silver coins. I have been buying for a year or more from them, take delivery after you have accumulated some to save on shipping costs.
Also, find a local coin dealer, they generally can be bargained with.
KingKang try  CMI- gold -silver.com  thay are based in Phoenix Az  phone 800-528-1380 . GOOD LUCK !
Hi Mac,
Thanks for that. Yeah, I was looking for smaller purchases of silver (<5k initially). I always thought 10K is a lot of money which is why i thought 5k would be more manageable. I’m not sure if i trust ebay with my silver purchases, so it may have to be apex? Is that correct? If I go by Howard Chapman’s and Howard Ruff’s forecast, silver could actually go to 100. It’ll be reaching but in the realm of possibility.
Yeah, under $5K go with Apmex.com, or CMI-gold-silver.com, per bobobob… Actually, bulliondirect is cool too.. haha… check out everything that was mentioned here..
I agree about ebay. The only thing I buy there, personally, is the 90% and only from power sellers …
Dr. Acula — I was not aware of that… wow…. How did they get around that law?!
http://www.goldshark.com/
I used to buy from APMEX and was very satisfied, however, if you want the best deal, this website is very good!
Many Many Thanks for the Goldshark link. Excellent site.
kingkang…. ebay seems to be the best.. I would buy American silver eagles, Canadian Maple leafs, and US pre 64 90% “junk” silver dimes, quarters and halves..
Brian, you’re correct. The college bubble will burst soon (when I say soon I mean 1-3 years). Gerald Celente has said the same thing. I think you may have already read his work.
Basically, a case can be made that any system that requires massive amounts of debt to subsidize will be going away, or at least shrinking to a fraction of its former size. Home mortgages, building construction, college tuition, automobile financing, and yes, finally the government itself (without debt it would not function).
It will be a different world here in the US within a few short years.
@Chris
People talk about Housing, Commercial Real Estate, Cash for Clunkers, etc. But never talk about the institution of College which has massively inflated costs.
All those drunk frat-boys who think they are ON TOP of the world now, will soon be passed out drunk in a gutter not even knowing what hit them.
Mac Slavo, Thanks for the information and warning. It’s a bit of a relief to know that we may have a couple more years to make preparations. Though I know inflation is creeping up so spend those dollars on prep stuff as fast as possible.  I feel like I’m waking up late to this. To prepare and remain debt free it’s going to take months. Mr. Celente previously hinted at a currency crisis hitting next month and that had me so stressed out. Who knows really what will happen?
All we can do is prepare for the worse and hope for the best, as my Grandpa use to say. He was an adult with 6 kids and he survived the Great Depression and went on to live a prosperous, long life. I am encouraged by his long life and survival. He always had a large veggie garden, berries, apple orchard. On 1/2 acre of land in a residential neighborhood in a small town he fed his family. My grandma canned veggies, made homemade jam, apple sauce, and tomato sauce. She made home made clothing, quilted, knitted, and nothing of possible use was ever wasted.
The end of this era, and after the turmoil, will be the beginning of a new one. Maybe it will be a better one. It won’t hurt us to get back to the basics of life. Maybe I won’t be able to afford high-speed internet service at home for a while. Do kids really need a whole room full of toys they can never have time to play with (and the plastic is damaging their DNA, BTW)?
My Mom told me a story about her best, most memorable Christmas ever was when she was a little girl. Her family was so poor that they barely had enough to eat. Her father saved for months to get her one tiny present that she really wanted…just one present, and how much she appreciated it.
I’m sure we all have those kinds of stories from our family’s history. My point is that we are in a panic about the New Great Depression because we’re grown up with so much stuff. It’s hard to imagine life without all of out stuff and creature comforts. All we need to survive is food, water, shelter, and clothing (air is a given). The coming era may turn out to be a welcome return to the basics of life which may bring back a sense of connectedness with each other.
When I grew up in Kentucky there was really no place to go “out,” so we went to friends houses and visited with them. Those friends I still have today. After I moved to the “city” friends and I go out to places where we are seen but really can’t hear each other. There are too many people around to really visit. After working all week just coming over my house to visit with me seems boring to them (maybe I’m boring, but, nah, I don’t think so 🙂 In this city people want experiences and distractions from everyday life. It’s so rare when I can catch my friends in the city to just sit down and have a good visit ’cause everybody is in such a rush. We fill our lives up with so much stuff to do because there is stuff to do. A simpler life for the Nation would not be so bad. In hyperinflation cable TV and high-speed Internet service are going to be some of the first luxuries to cut out so families are going to start spending more time together.
Maybe we could all buy a quality canner and supplies and learn how to put food back like our grandparents did, learn to sow so we can mend our clothes for extending their usefulness, stuff like that.
Ever notice that it’s many of the plastic things we will not be able to afford in the next collapse: electronic gadgets, DVDs, CDs, computer games and consoles, more cheap stuff made in China. Ironic that all these plastic things that we don’t really need just happen to be the very same items with high profit margins for the corporations making them.
With hyperinflated fuel, I’ll bet it will suddenly become more economical to manufacture near large cities in American rather than ship it in from China. ?? Fuel will be expensive and labor will be cheap because so many people will need jobs. The mini re-industrialization of America?
Both of my Grandfathers supported large families in the middle of  the Great Depression, one as a bread baker and the other as a farm hand. They all survived and prospered later in life.
Prepare, learn traditional skills, befriend your neighbors, and try to think positively about your personal future.
When the sh-t hits the fan the fertilizer will be well dispersed for the next wave of prosperity to take root. Maybe we will finally evolve past the industrial revolution of mass production and wealth hoarding. Maybe the next wave of prosperity will be quality of life issues that has nothing to do with money accumulation. After the initial meltdown I can envision a better future ahead after the corrupt system is discarded.
once the internet is gone, we will only have the mainstream media to depend on for what is going on in our world—we’ll be sunk for sure.
that’s why a good short-wave radio is a must have survivor tool.
Yeah, but look at the bright side…
At least the time/money that we’ve put into preparing for this train wreck will not have been a complete waste.
….Commentators have been warning about an imminent collapse for the past 30 years. Now, though, I don’t see how it can be avoided. I’ve been retired for years and have followed this collapse daily. Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs have absolutely looted our treasury. Their operatives–like Hank Paulson–control payouts. Their cronies, who gave us the most recent financial meltdown, have been rewarded with multi-billion dollar bail-outs and pledges of trillions more as needed. A last ditch government effort should be made to reclaim these billions and at least pay the pensions earned by disabled veterans and life-long Social Security “contributors”.
kingkang,
has anyone mentioned buying directly from the gov?
http://www.usmint.gov/
I know they’ve run out of 2009 Silver coins but the 10’s should be along shortly….
have no idea how prices compare to dealers….
Bought 1 oz coins directly from a bank a number of years ago also – you might want to check w/natl bank in your city
Brian,
Your strategy seems to preclude the possibility that a college degree will be desirable, perhaps even necessary in the future. Furthermore, you imply that nothing of value occurs in college (unless of course you value binge drinking).
However I suspect, were we to sit down, that you would concede the possibility of a college degree being beneficial to have in the future and that the choice between engaging in learning or partying like a rock star resides with and is the sole responsibility of each individual.
Therefore I submit that you could gain something of value in the pursuit of a college degree commensurate with the expense & time spent ( a net gain).
The trick for someone as seemingly focused as you are (as I see it) is to be the architect of your learning process. A great deal of the mass consumption curriculum is garbage – absolutely useless – designed solely to pad institution revenues.
But I’m sure if you turn that critical analysis on the problem, you’ll find a solution both effective at generating the desired outcome (perhaps affordable, relevant, interesting, challenging)Â as well as suitable for you.
As a postscript, I will tell you that at age 51,and after a successful 30-year career in finance, the lack of a college degree still impedes my opportunities. Unless your worst-case scenaro comes to pass, I fear that your lack of a degree will be a much larger impediment to you than it was to me…
Best of luck!
– TomOfTheNorth
@TOM
Thanks for your perspective. I just hope kids these days realize a college degree is no entitlement program.
@TomOfTheNorth
RE: Buying From The US Mint
I’m sure they have some of the gold plated tungsten left. Though it may be fake, it should would give you a great feeling to have a bunch of gold that wasn’t really gold. The funny thing is, those tungsten bars are such a perfect analogy of our economy. Almost perfect. Looks like something valuable on the outside but not so much on the inside. I guess the only way to get any closer would be to gold plate a pile of BULLCRAP. We could be like most of the sheeple. Never look inside. Just feel good about that gold plating! Yee! Ha!
Thanks guys! Alot of helpful ideas here. I still need to brush up on my silver knowledge (prior to purchase). It’s good to know that we are all (for the most part) like-minded!
All the money in circulation is now being hoarded by the banks and people with money already.  All this talk about hyperinflation is not in the realm of reality when this happens. Just ask anyone in business and see if anyone has any money to spend expect the rich- and they are not spending any either.  The depression has already come to most of us poor working stiffs out in the country due to no money to spend. I suppose you can have inflation but it doesn’t matter is you don’t have any money in your pocket.  Only food will matter to the poor, so join the military so you’l be the one with the gun in your hand.
Y’all might like to read “The Great Reckoning” by William Rees-Mogg and James Dale Davidson (allegdedly a penny stock scam artist). If you can find it (Written in 1991), its a great book and it talks about the effects of a hyperinflationary depression. Hyperinflation destroys political systems. Which does not bode well for us.
Brian,
I can totally understand your perspective. The future seems bleak so why bother getting a college degree with all of society may unravel?
I was a teenager in the middle of the cold war. We lived near a military base that we felt sure was in the Soviet’s sights. Some of my friends and I would talk about the Cold War. Would the USA and Soviet Union push the buttons and fire off all their nuclear missiles. The future seemed bleak then to. After high school I thought that it would be a waste of time to go to college because there would probably a nuclear war. Thought I should just have fun and be with my family for as long as possible.
Because I could not know the future, it was an act of Faith to go to college anyway. I felt directionless along the way, but as an art student that worked for me. 😀 I put it into my art. I studied graphics design so that I could find a job in a creative field after graduation. The best part of college was the journey…all the people I got to meet…exposed to great literature and art and ideas…staying up to 6am with friends drinking coffee and talking about ideas…staying up for days on end making art. It’s the only time in life where my whole focus was to learn and have all kinds of experiences. I miss that time of just focusing on creativity without needing to make money. As we see the world did not explode in a nuclear fireball so I’m glad that I did earn a degree so that I could get a good paying job later in life.
We can’t know the future so it turns out differently that we can imagine because there are so many variables. Nations rise and fall and rise again. Look how many configurations Italy, France, Greece, Egypt, and Persia have taken over the last few thousand years. We have more control over our personal lives based on our own decisions. I encourage you to plan for a positive future for yourself. There is likely to be turmoil in the more immediate future of the USA, but what about after that?
I cannot imagine that society will fall into anarchy and stay that way for very long. Order will be imposed and society stabilized one way or another. The Soviet Union and Japanese currencies collapsed. It is taking decades to come back from that, but their societies held together in relative stability, though the people had to refocus on the basic things in life. In the 80s the former Soviets had a terrible time. Seems that things are better now for the average person. The years after the USA economic collapse there will be good employment opportunities and bright young minds will be needed. An MBA might not mean very much, but people with engineering degrees will likely be needed, especially in the fields of green building and green energy design. If you earn a degree in a field that is likely to be needed in the future your skills will be needed. You will find a good paying job. We only have to survive the initial collapse and desperate people, looting, rise in crime. Eventually, order will be restored and life for the average person will go on. Then we have to figure out what to do for the rest of our lives. I’m glad that I did not run for the hills and prepare to survive a nuclear winter back when I was 20 years old.
Governments are kind of in the background of our personal lives. They rise and fall and something else replaces them. We can imagine a Hell on Earth or Garden on Earth in our personal lives. It take very little effort to imagine one way or the other, but one way will make you a lot happier.
My Grandfather supported six children and a stay-at-home wife during the last Great Depression. I’m sure he could not have done that without preparations for the reality of the day, determination to pull through, and a little optimism for better days ahead.
Peace and be well,
Greg
Brian,
It depends on what you decide to get your college degree in that matters. I am chemical engineer so I am a bit biased, but a degree in mechanical, civil engineering or agricultural engineering tied with basic carpentry, plumbing or machining skills could be very useful when SHTF. Also, learning surveying could be useful as well. You can still find people who sell slide rules and books on nomography that could be useful in doing calculations needed to build things.Â
Mac: Yes, my political philosophy is definitely left of center but you aren’t wrong on the facts or where this country is headed unfortunately so keep up what you are doing. Oh, some web sites that may be of interest:(Generational Dynamics) http://www.generationaldynamics.com, (Global Guerrilas) http://www.globalguerrilas.com, and (Fabius Maximus) http://www.fabiusmaximus.com. These could be dot.org sites but they are good sites with facts that y’all would appreciate.Â
KINGKANG , For info go to :  http://www.kitco.com just click on this link good info here .
I’m old enough to sit in on community college classes for free, and I’m taking everything I can think of. I’ve done several emergency medicine classes, horticulture/ agriculture, fabric making, etc. I’m taking notes and hoping to pass this info on to others. Not all college is useless by any means! This is stuff my family and community NEEDS most in the coming disaster. I hope someone in my area is taking advanced classes on water supply, sanitation, energy, and LAW ENFORCEMENT for emergencies. I can now grow corn and make clothes but I’m too old for stopping Mutant Zombie bikers or repairing roads. Somebody out there, take a class!
After the coming economic crash, there will be a recovery of sorts. Our way of life is however, going to change forever. The problem in any post-SHTF situation is that this is NOT THE 1930’s! That means that MOST people are no longer willing to work to innovate and to make due with what they have! Our nation is a welfare, credit based and government hand-out nation. We have been molded into a mob that looks to government for everything from our toilet paper to our HEALTH CARE and even filling the tanks of our cars! Some people think that Obama has a “stash” of cash somewhere and they want their cut! So, when the “Schumer” hits the fan, our nation is going to come unhinged very quickly. Yes, order will eventually be restored, but it will not be like it ever was before. For one thing, people do not LOVE their country like they did in the 1930’s. We’ve been conditioned to dislike our past, dislike our system and dislike our culture. Follow that with the sad fact that people just don’t know how to do things anymore. Oh, I suppose that some do and some are learning. They are found in the survival community, not in East L.A. or Chicago. We are going to see a drastic decline in our population, maybe as much as 75% of our people will NOT SURVIVE a “Schumeresque” post crash environment. It’s going to be very grim and life is going to be VERY PRECARIOUS. Now is the time to prepare the best you can. But most won’t. They’ll hang around on the corner DEMANDING that the government come wipe their rear ends! Well, it’s going to get so bad, that NOBODY is going to want to be in charge for some time. That’s right, no congress, no courts, no PRESIDENT and NO WELFARE, FOODSTAMPS and NO FREE GOODIES OF ANY KIND. Our country has lived too high on the hog, for too long. The Day of Reckoning is soon to be upon us. Sadly, we did it to ourselves. We have bought the rope that will hang us, just as Lenin said.
As far as silver purchases are concerned try a local coin shop. I get a better deal there than ebay. A few years ago people were not as awake as now and silver was reasonable on ebay, not so now. You might check out http://www.eaglesup.com also for gold and silver. Also, check out http://republicbroadcasting.org at 4pm cst esp. on Monday and Tuesday
Buying from a local dealer subjects you to state’s sales tax. Here in NJ, it’s a rather nasty surcharge of 7.5% over spot. Personally, I buy from Provident – respectable name, good prices, inconspicuous and relatively cheap delivery.
Comments…..What about the Fed DEVALUING the dollar by a factor of 2X or 10X??? Then they can pay off the debts with cheaper dollars!
Commodities like gold, silver copper ,lead, zinc, aluminum , sugar,
canned goods, guns, ammo, food, real estate, etc will all go up in value!
WAKE UP, a warning is a warning, don’t count on years to go yet, the world is so ripe for something, anything to trigger this all to take place and it’s only a fraction of what against everyone. Israel goes to war soon, oil is turned upside down right now, wait till Iran shuts it down too. MOST Important, People are not like those in the 3O’s, morals of people are basically gone, look at our politicians, people will not be so quick to help others anymore, plant a food plot, you’d better stand guard, it will be gone, people don’t care anymore and put FEAR into the picture, LOOK OUT..I wouldn’t worry about gold nor silver either, it won’t last, put up your food, get back to the basics and keep quiet of what you have or you may lose it. Sadly I hate all this, but it’s been foretold and it’s coming, God warned that man would make a mess of things and he certainly has. But don’t fear, keep God in your heart, do what’s right, prepare as best you can, and warnings are warning, you act now, not later…
Comments….. For I have never seen the righteous forsaken are His seed begging bread.
I honestly hope that no one is rushing out to buy gold and silver, especially now that prices are through the roof. Gold and silver has never been a viable currency in times of hardship. Do you think a slab of gold would have gotten you anywhere in New Orleans after Katrina? On the other hand, people would be more than willing to barter with you if you were offering gas, bottled water, food, generators, or other useful goods.Â
Comments….. Hey yall! This is an awesome site. I just wanted to give you something else to think about in the event of collapse of our society. TRANSPORTATION. Dont assume you can just drive your car to a safe place. Remember Hurricaine RITA? I was working on an ambulance in a small town in Central Texas in the days before she hit.. I saw many people die in their car, sitting in traffic! The heat and stress make crazy people crazier, medical conditions worse and you dont want to be on the road with them! It was unbelievable, I have never seen anything that bad in all my career,,,,Get a horse (be sure to get a gentle horse that is well broke) and saddle, learn to ride, you will be able to go cross country, with no fuel and you dont need roads.
Maranatha! God Bless
Leslie, you make a good point. Please see the following article that discusses gold and silver, as well as other forms of money during hyperinflationary collapse: https://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/what-is-money-when-the-system-collapses_12292009
JUNK SILVER IS USELESS FOR A SHTF SCENARIO!
If you disagree with my statement above, do me a favor. Borrow $5 in fiat currency from some sheeple you know. Then pay them back with a few dimes, quarters etc., in pre-1965 coins and watch their face as they get pissed! Then try to do the same thing while buying $5 worth of stuff at the neighborhood 7-11 store and see how far that gets your with Sanjay the owner. In the mind of sheeple, there is NO DIFFERENCE between post and pre-1965 money. If you’re not dealing with an informed survivalist or a numismatist you will NEVER CONVINCE them that your shiny pocket change is better than their shiny pocket change no way no how. Not to mention, the average American idiot couldn’t solve a math equation to determine silver content in 40% or 90% coins to save their idiotic lives. Besides, is a SHTF scenario really the time to conduct math classes with your uninformed trading partners? Heck, you might even get shot for your troubles when they think you’re trying to cheat them with your extra- special shiny dimes and quarters…and the last thing you’ll see will be all your lovely 90% and 40% coins getting kicked into the gutter while they check your pockets for something really valuable.
We must go back to the old west for guidance in this junk silver worth question. When trappers traded with the Native Americans in the wilderness they traded useful items like knives, guns, ammo, food, clothing, whisky, etc., for the beaver skins they desired. After all, what would an Indian in the middle of the wilderness have wanted with shiny gold or silver? It wasn’t until the trader returned to “civilization” that he encountered trading posts willing to exchange silver and gold for beaver skins or other goods. A true SHTF situation is essentially identical to this old wilderness trading situation. Silver and gold only has value when you have established enough law and order that trading stations can be maintained without being burned and raided on a regular basis.
However, please don’t get me wrong. I have a soft spot in my heart (and in my head) for silver. I have 1000 American Silver Eagles which I bought as a hedge investment and in case of a hyperinflationary situation without major political or socioeconomic collapse (non-SHTF in other words) and a lot of junk silver. Should hyper inflation kick-in my plan is to go to the local coin shop and exchange a few coins for some paper money to buy groceries immediately before they become even more devalued. Of course, the Silver Eagle has the words “One Ounce Fine Silver .999″ on it so it has more street cred immediately, but the coin shop owner won’t need me to explain to him why they’re worth more than the $1 face amount anyway. My junk silver will have value in this hyperinflationary non-SHTF case as well. However, in a SHTF scenario Maslow’s Hierachy of Needs will kick in ASAP. People will be looking for shelter, food, medicine, ammo, clothing, liquor, sex etc. Shiny metal will probably only get you killed in your sleep by someone who doesn’t see the benefits of trading perfectly good food for your precious shiny metals like silver or gold. Most especially if the shiny junk metals look exactly like (to their uneducated eye) as the jingling crap in their own threadbare pants. To paraphrase an old anti-drug slogan, “There’s a reason they call it JUNK!â€
Rick, excellent post. Thank you for sharing your thoughts regarding junk silver and the comparisons you made to the Wild West, because it is an excellent analogy.
I recently wrote an article titled “What is money when the system collapses” where I discuss my thoughts on junk silver in more detail, and I noted, as you did, that trading of silver/gold may very well break down when your traditional buyers (money exchangers like coin shops, banks, etc.) dry up.
However, I somewhat disagree with the assessment that merchants will not know what to do with junk silver at the onset of a collapse. My reasons for this are theoretical, but my line of thinking is, that in the event of a hyperinflationary environment for the US Dollar, merchants will realize that collecting X amount of dollars today may not have the same value tomorrow. As a result, they will strive to collect payment in another monetary unit/commodity if they are able to do so. The obvious solution would be precious metals, the most recognizable of which should be the 1 oz. Silver eagles and junk silver coins. They may not know that a ’64 quarter has .18 ounces of silver in it today, but when they see currency depriciate at a rapid rate, they will learn very quickly what real money is. Again, my assessment of this focuses more on what is referred to as the “crunch” when the system initially begins to buckle — this may be a period of days, weeks or months, and it is during this time that junk silver will become money. I believe merchants, especially those selling food and fuel, will be able to adjust quickly to the changing dynamics of the environment. However, as you mentioned, on an individual person-to-person level, I do not see precious metals as a very popular monetary unit initially, as most people will have no clue what junk silver is actually worth because of the lack of knowledge about the amount of silver in a given coin and the “fair value” price of that silver.
Thanks again for your comment — a very well thought out argument.
Mac
Mac,
Thanks for reading my post! I read your article What is money when the system collapses and thoroughly enjoyed it. and basically agree with your conclusions. The initial stages of a collapse will no doubt lead to merchants educating themselves as to the value of silver coinage. My primary concern wa to address the beliefs of some who seem to think that gold and silver is a panacea for SHTF and Road Warrior scenarios. I wanted to address the eronious belief that silver and gold would be the key to solving all problems even when society suffers a massive breakdown.
Gold and Silver first came to prominence 6000 years ago in the cities of the fertile crescent. They’ve proven their value in situations when a firm government is in control and law and order are forced. My concern was to address the false beliefs of those who think that gold and silver would be of value even
In a Road Warrior sitation. History tells us that during such times basic bartering is the more likely future candidate. precious metals tend to thrive is periods of instabilty. However, if lawlessness became rampant trading posts would shatter. The asumption of precious metal trading assumes that people will have the funds, the excess supplies, and the necessary law enforcement for security purposes. Additionally, the implicit assumption of gold and silver trading in a SHTF scenario is that there will be a surplus of basic goods and a transportation system that will keep goods moving to and extent that people will be able to afford trading goods for the precious metal. Such conditions are by no means guaranteed. Such a favorable situation, however, is far from certain.
Most people would be glad in normal times to sell you a bottle of clean matter for gold or silver since sufficient rerserves exist to satisfy their own needs. In a SHTF situation though, a clean bottle of war may be a prized posession not for sale at any price. Imagine a man lost in a parched desert with nothing but a canteen of water keeping him alive. Such a man wouldn’t sell his water for all the gold in Foty Knox, as all the gold in the world is of no help to a skeleton bleaching on some god-forsaken dune somewhere.
The long and short of it is that a stockpile of a wide variety of necessary goods for survival will always be necessary. Undue reliance on gold and silver to save the day in all possible situations is just not realistic.
Rick
In the early collapse period or during civilization recovery gold and silver may become acceptable. I just wanted to wake up those preppers who think gold and silver is all they’ll need to survice.
Rick
After the dollar collapses, a high percentage of the sheeple will die from starvation and disease in the first two months. A high percentage of people will die as the result of violence.
Gold and silver will be of limited value during these times of getting back to what is truly important in our lives. This is why you need a good supply of water, food, medicine, health and cleanliness supplies.
Order will eventually be restored. The US dollar will be re-issued. When it is re-issued, use your precious metals to buy new currency.
RICK’S QUOTE: “the eronious belief that silver and gold would be the key to solving all problems even when society suffers a massive breakdown”
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However, if lawlessness became rampant trading posts would shatter. The asumption of precious metal trading assumes that people will have the funds, the excess supplies, and the necessary law enforcement for security purposes.
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I just wanted to wake up those preppers who think gold and silver is all they’ll need to service.
Rick, I agree on all of the above points that you have made. Long-term gold/silver investment should be looked at as just that — long-term. Hyptohetically, if the whole system were to collapse, then those with 10 ounce gold bars are going to have a very difficult time trading, especially when food, energy, transportation, and other essential services remain scarce. Your point in the earlier comment regarding Maslow’s hierarchy is spot on — during SHTF, society will be concerned with the first levels — food, shelter, security — nothing else will matter.
So, if you are prepping with just gold/silver, don’t be surprised if you can’t buy food and other essential goods, specifically because of the reasons mentioned by Rick in his two comments.
However, if you have a long holding time line for your precious metals and are willing to wait it out for perhaps years, then it could be very beneficial once those trade routes are re-established during the recovery and stabilization periods. At this point, if you’ve got gold/silver, you should be able to acquire land, animals, equipment, labor, etc. and make a very nice living.
Note* – we are talking about total collapse scenarios here, just to be clear.
Comments.Although I am aware that there really isn’t much that can alter our economic picture,I still have doubts about some “devastating collapse”.
I have been reading about this topic for thirty years and it is always “just around the corner,next year or so”…
Either way.I’m prepared with Gold,Guns and Groceries.
Even if the folks in Washington can perform miracles and allow us to settle into a lower standard of living gradually instead of abruptly,I still sleep like a baby knowing that I have prepared.
We are truly witnessing a controlled demolition of the US economy. My hats off to Obama..he’s been doing a heck of a job!
Comments…..Stock food, drink and supplies. STOCK UP when things go on sale. Don’t forget the antibiotic ointment. It would be a shame to die because you cut your hand or foot. Good Luck America.
Comments…..
TRADES FOR A BARTER ECONOMY
Skills with an * are either borderline barter trades, or are probably going to be more useful in a non-TEOTWAWKIÂ situation. They are more suited to a monetary system.
Ammunition re-loader
Artist
Assayer
Baker
Banker*/Money changer*
Barber
Blacksmith
Blade-smith
Bookbinder
Botanist*/Herbalist
Bowyer
Brewer
Bullet caster
Bicycle Repairman
Bricklayer
Butcher
Candle maker
Cabinet maker
Carpenter
Cartridge maker
Cartwright
Chandler
Charcoal burner
Cheese maker
Chemist*
Cook
Cooper/Barrel maker
Dentist
Doctor
Dog trainer
Dye maker
Electrician*
Entertainer/Storyteller
Farmer/Gardener/Rancher
General store owner
Harvester/Gatherer
Firewood purveyor
Fisherman/Fishmonger
Fletcher
Garbage collector*
Gunsmith
Gunpowder maker
Radio operator*
Handyman/Repairman
Historian
Horse trainer
Hunter
Leader
Librarian*
Locksmith
Lumberjack
Maid
Machinist
Massage therapist
Mechanic
Metallurgist*
Midwife
Miller
Miner
Musician
Navigator (Land, lake, & sea)
Net maker
Nurse
Paper maker
Pedi-cab driver
Pharmacist/Medicine Man
Pilot*
Physicist*
Plumber
Postmen*
Potter
Preacher
Printer*
Roofer/Thatcher
Rope maker
Sail maker
Sailor/Boatswain
Sawmill operator
Scavenger
Scribe
Secretary*
Security guard*
Shearer
Shepherd/Goatherd
Sheriff/Marshall*
Shipwright*
Shoemaker
Skill At Arms instructor*
Smelter
Soap maker
Spinner
Spirits distiller
Stonemason
Surveyor*
Tailor
Tanner
Teacher*
Tinker
Tinsmith/Sheetmetal worker
Toy, Game maker
Tracker
Trader/Wagoner
Trapper
Undertaker
Veterinarian
Weaver
Wheelwright
Winemaker
Welder