Since the inception of this web site we have opined about gold being a store of wealth and a necessary addition to any long-term emergency preparedness plan.
Whether you are planning for a multi-year recessionary crisis, economic collapse, deflation, hyperinflationary depression, or Mad Max, gold seems to be the one physical asset that promises to provide some level of protection when the future of paper currencies and other asset classes is in question. Though it’s not often mentioned as one of the investing tools at one’s disposal, by all accounts it does seem to be gaining acceptance by mainstream investors:
Investors are accumulating enough bullion to fill Switzerland’s vaults twice over as gold’s most- accurate forecasters say the longest rally in at least nine decades has further to go no matter what the economy holds.
Analysts raised their 2011 forecasts more than for any other precious metal the past two months, predicting a 10th annual advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The most widely held option on gold futures traded in New York is for $1,500 an ounce by December, or 18 percent more than the record $1,266.50 reached June 21. Holdings through bullion-backed exchange-traded products are already at more than 2,075 metric tons, within 0.1 percent of the all-time high.
“Either a swift economic recovery or further dismal economic performance should bring new buyers into the market,†said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt who was the most accurate forecaster in the first quarter and expects the metal to rise as high as $1,400 next year. “A stronger economy would create more jewelry demand. If the economy stays weak or gets worse, then investors will be looking for a safe haven.â€
source: Bloomberg
Billionaire financier George Soros recently referred to gold as the ultimate bubble, and we agree. In the last decade we’ve seen bubbles in technology, US real estate, Chinese real estate, oil, and the credit markets. As we speak there is likely a bubble developing in US Treasuries as investors around the globe shift assets to what many believe to be the last bastion of safety in the investment world. But as the Bloomberg piece cited above points out, investors are coming to realize that there may be another investment that is just as safe, if not safer, than U.S. debt, and billions of dollars all over the planet are shifting into it. Keep in mind that buying at the top of the bubble is a bad idea, but not during the initial stages.
We are currently in the opening stages of a massive gold bubble that will be blown over the coming years. The next phase of the crisis, which is beginning to play out right now, will solidify our long-held views that the problems stemming from the 2008 crisis were not averted, and that we are actually worse off now than we were in the midst of 2008 and 2009. As our Gross Domestic Product comes to a near stand still later this year, it is impossible to predict exactly how stock markets will react, or what the government will do in response. Though, we will take a shot and forecast that, based on recent lip-service coming out of Washington – the Federal Reserve, Treasury and our government controlled banks will do whatever it takes to avoid deflation – meaning they will print more money and pass even more laws restrictive of actual economic growth.
Regardless of the immediate impact this has on stocks or the perceptions of consumers, once it becomes clear that our elected and appointed officials have failed at the very thing in which they have been deemed experts, the general public (globally) is going to lose confidence in their abilities to further manage the crisis.
As a result, even more money will shift into precious metals – there will simply be no alternative over the longer term.
Whether analysts are right or wrong about the $1500 per ounce price target for gold over the next year or so is yet to be determined. We’ve got our own views on this and they may not mesh with those of the analysts.
If there’s anything that we should have learned from this crisis it’s that the analysts are usually surprised by what happens.
Over the long-term, gold is going up. To us, that’s a given, partly because of the reasons cited above. In the near-term, which is the time frame to which most analysts subscribe, we should be ready for anything.
One situation in which gold may actually go down in the near-term, as opposed to the price targets of the analysts, is during a stock market crash. What if, in a repeat of the 2008/2009 market collapses, investors simply decide to sell everything first, and ask questions later? What if they begin to unload their blue chip stocks and bank shares just as quickly as they sell their gold? In 2008, we saw gold suffer a significant decline because of this phenomenon coupled with a strengthening dollar. Perhaps a similar scenario will play out in the months ahead.
Whatever the case may be, however, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive. Crisis, not deflation or inflation, will be the driving factor. And, given where we’ve been, where we are, and what we can expect in the future, we are nowhere near a recovery.
Thus, regardless of what the analysts are saying, be they supporters or detractors, gold and silver remain our top investment vehicles as a store of value for the preservation of wealth. Whether you’re buying gold bricks to diversify some of your amassed wealth or stocking pre-1965 quarters for your bug-out bags, you can feel confident that you are backed by over 5,000 years of monetary history that proves your investment will never go to zero.
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I agree. Schiff, Rogers, Faber, and many others in addition to Soros are all but telling people right now to buy as much as you can while prices are “cheap”.
Of course, in the off chance gold/silver are worthless the world probably won’t be recognizable, at least as far as civilization goes.
Comments…..Accumalating precious metals will be an important part of maintaining wealth.
But having a good store of foods, medicines, protective clothing, foot wear, tools and bartering items will be just as important.
Gold, it self, is only good if you have enough of the other items to survive.
You can not eat, wear or heal with gold. But gold does have an important role in the future of man kind as a bartering tool.
Mona, I agree 100%. How much of a store of food and goods would you recommend?Â
Gold is money, plain and simple. In good times it buys things and in bad times it buys even more things.
Look back across the ages and in every currency crisis and every mad max senerio it was the real money of account, the only money in some cases but it has never ever NOT been accepted as money.
Many jews bought their freedom from Nazi border guards with it. Many Argintenian families protected their wealth with it. In the great German inflation an ounce of gold would have fed and housed you for months. And if you decided you wanted to bug out, you could have hidden a fortune in your money belt and walked away from the madness.
In the years to come there will be two types of people, those that bought gold and those kicking themselves that they didn’t when they had the chance.
Silver is getting ready to set launch just like the NASA space shuttle. Keep an eye on US Treasury bonds. When we start seeing the sell off around the world (especially China, banks & individual holders), this will prepare the launch pad for the silver rocket into the heavens… :)    Jump on as much “physicalâ€Â silver as you can afford right now. Not paper ETF’s, but physical silver. This time next year, you will be astonished by your decision.  Then pay down as much debt as you possibly can.
eagleclaw, I hope you’re plan pays off. That certainly sounds like a way to get out of debt but the problem is I wouldn’t put it past our government to disallow something like that or even make it illegal. I think the key to that will be the timing as it always is.
I have read what happened in the days of the Weimar Republic and it is true that debtors made out big time. They simply transferred all their debt obligations onto the backs of savers through the depreciation of the currency. No currency controls were ever instituted from what I read, other than introducing different versions of marks during that time.
I think Argentina may be a better indicator of what may happen to this country. Does anyone know if they instituted any currency controls in dealing with hyperinflation?
Comments….. In examining any issue such as buying gold, I always like to look at history. History is a great teacher. Gold and silver have been used as stores of wealth, and money for centuries. I don’t hink that’s going to change just because some talking head on tv bad mouths the buying of gold for asset protection. Precious metals have never let their owners down. Yes, price fluctuatiuons do happen, but right now, I don’t care if the price of gold drops due to whatever, i will hold on to what I have, as the real worth of gold will come to the rescue when needed.
     If the flow of traffic into the coin store I frequent is any indication, John Q. Public is figuring out that our government is flat lying their asses off about our economy recovering. The store sometimes looked as though it had been robbed. Not the case though, just silver coins, rounds, and buillon of every size flying off the shelves. They can barely keep up with demand. Is this an indicator of a bubble to come?? This bubble is happening now. Many regular citizens know the economy is toast, and that fear takes them to precious metals. This trend will continue, and as the price rises, just as with the stock market, people want on the bandwagon. be carefull though, the wagon is moving fast, jump on now or you’ll miss it entirely.
I believe it will be more like a cheap seat on “top” of the train in India.  Only so many can buy a ticket, the other have to have good timing and be fast to fight their way on.  The previous many bubbles are falling. The PTB are trying to keep them inflated & they know that time is not on their side but they have the play book. I wonder how many politicians possess physical, including the top one and previous?
Sterling Silver flatware, forks, spoons and knife handles are 92.5% pure silver. If the individual piece has a well known makers mark it will be accepted as Sterling Silver by those who deal in precious metals. You can trade it in on 90% pre 1965 US minted ‘trash’ coins; dimes, quarters and half dollars or the silver bullion ’rounds’
The areason that I mention this is because you can still frequently find individual pieces of Sterling Silver flatware at garage/yard sales. If the seller isn’t really savey and doesn’t know that the  fork and two spoons in that box of mismatched stainless flatware are in fact Sterling Silver, then you may get a good buy on something that is really valuable.
Chris C.
The government is powerless to enforce anything (as proven time & time again). Just because the gov’t opposes something, the massess will go the extra yard to defy the gov’t (especially the way people are feeling now about the gov’t & our leadership)… And don’t forget the blackmarket is always prevailent during hard times, which is capitalism & free enterprise against a tyranical gov’t).  In addition, the BS idea w/ the 1099’s & taxing people with purchases of $600 or more is not a done deal, and even if it somehow does pass later on, it won’t be in effect until 2012.Â
Gold and silver have their place….but it comes AFTER you have a good food supply ( year, minimum ), water supply/source, and the means to defend what you have. I’d probably also throw in ‘get out of debt’.  THEN, maybe, is the time for metals……otherwise you may find the cost of beans and bullets to be quite high in terms of gold if you REALLY NEED beans and bullets.
The people that think they are gonna save themselves with gold alone are probably as delusional as the “survivalists” with 20 firearms, a footlocker full of ammo, and a case of MREs.
Gold will have it’s place on the other side of the coming crisis….not some much during.
It’s true that you should buy gold or silver after you’ve stashed at least a few months of food, water purification, guns & ammo.
Gold & silver have always been accepted for food, guns, ammo, water, women (or men if you’re so inclined) and it will be during the soon to be inevitable collapse however bad or mild it may be.
TnAndy & Dave,
I completely agree regarding stocking up on food/water, ammo, weapons and other nec. supplies. That goes without saying & I continue to do so.Â
My only agonizing concern is trying to figure out when the US dollar collapses, will it be replaced by another physical paper currency like the SDR I have read about or do we all simply go debit card w/ all purchases/transactions & debit system with paychecks into our accounts & all other monetary transactions ??    Something we should all wonder about regarding all investing in precious metals when/if they go to $5000+/oz for gold & 200+/oz for silver ??
Gold bitches………Obama blows.
Executive Order 6102 in 1933 enabled the govt to confiscate most privately held gold paying only 40% of its value.
Hidden in the new Healthcare Bill is the IRS requirement to track ALL gold transactions over 600 dollars via 1099 forms, a prelude to confiscation.
Whether its tulips,beanie babies, dot coms, real estate, or gold, if you haven’t figured it out you are going to be taken to the cleaners.
Thats why all the “advice” on this blog ends with a disclaimer that all the advice on this blog is not to be taken as advice. Sounds like bullshit to me.
The first wake up to swap for Au was on 9/11.  A good generator when you lost your power for a few days. A large pantry & freezer of food when Leman was allowed to go under. An affordable house when 2nd mortgage was popular. Forever stamps when they first came out. Guns & ammo when #1 won the election. What’s next? Clean drinking water & neighbors you can trust. The price of Ag should be par with Pd. 2.3/1
Eagleclaw:
Well, most certainly if at all possible, they will replace one fiat with another. Remember when the Euro first came out ? It was going to be backed with 40% gold ! ( which, of course, begs the question: what about the OTHER 60%….faith ?…..thin air ?……Danish butter ? )….of course, I’ve not even heard that mentioned now in 10 years or more.
The only question is how long will it take.Â
IF things get away from them ( remember Murphy’s Law ), it might be generations before they get their train back on track….hey, Andy Jackson tossed them a real curve ball in 1830’s and it took them until 1913 to get back to where they wanted to be 80 years before.
On the other hand, you might wake up tomorrow with the news you need to turn in your old green fiat for new red fiat. Who knows WHAT the wizards have planned….or can pull off. Personally, I thought it would go in the toilet when the national debt hit about 10 trillion….didn’t count on the FED simply keystroking up whatever it takes to keep the pea under a shell AND the world letting it slide.Â
I find it amazing that other countries are still sending us real stuff for hunks of paper…..of course, I have the SAME amazement when I buy real stuff with the same hunks….I was actually laughing one day at a coin shop when the guy was giving me real money for that paper shit…..he finally asked what was so funny, and AFTER I had the coin safely in my pocket ( on my Glock side….ahahahaa ), I told him. He just had this perplexed look about him…..
I’ve concluded that when all’s said and done and it’s every man for himself the most valuable commodity any of us will have is our wits.
That and a 30.06 to keep one’s wits from prematurely expiring due to someone else’s wits wanting it so.
Mona said, “… You can not eat, wear or heal with gold.”
That is simply not correct.
Gold is used to make certain Asian sweets, you know people, “eat” sweets.
Gold is woven into clothes and used for jewelry, obviously people, “wear” them both, to highlight their natural beauty, to signify social status and to attract mates.
Gold is currently being successfully used to treat and “heal” arthritis – a quite debilitating condition – for which many people would trade their supplies of food, water and ammo to be cured of so they can function normally.
Gold is also used in the creation of nano technology which can be used to “heal” all manner of health problems.
Gold is even used to make the windows in buildings more energy efficient.
There are many other uses for gold that people might not be aware of which means the rest of the world might be able to find a use for your gold and be wiling to trade with you for it, moreso than many other goods people might save to trade with.
Many people have all the water, food and ammo they will need for the rest of their lives, so the only thing you might have of value that they would want more of is gold, silver and oil.
Most doctors won’t accept dried fish as payment, but they will more than likely take gold.
Comments….. I look for the conversion to a cashless society sooner or later. When enough older people are gone, (like me), there will be less resistance to going cashless, or being “chipped’. We are all being groomed daily for this conversion. Let’s face it, the only thing keeping the dollar afloat now is the faith of the consumer to use and accept it. That acceptance is fading fast. Just go to a local coin shop, or a store that specializes more in buillon sales, and you’ll see what’s happening firsthand. The store I frequent, sometimes looks as if it’s been robbed. Not so, they simply can’t keep silver dollars, and smaller fractional gold on hand. So many first time buyers.  Aware people know what’s coming. Just as when stock investors clamor to get into the market when the price is rising on stocks, (wrong time), PM buyers are jumping in now as the price is rising. But unlike stocks,  the price is still undervalued from manipulation. But the manipulatioon won’t work much longer if any. The PM’s have a life of their own.Â
   Gold and silver are real money. And thousands more are figuring out that fact every day. The finite supply of silver is reallly beginning to be apparent. if you want some, get it soon.
   I hated to do it, but raiding my 401k, which the government will soon seize, is the only practical way I had to buy PM’s. But the idea of trading useless paper dollars for real money mankes the raids much easier. it’s become a no-brainer decision. That 401k money will soon be inflated to nothing. It already has been to a great degree.
    There are some truly bad times coming, and the handwriting is on the wall right in front of me. Read the handwriting guys, while you still can. Good luck all.
Arrrr ..I can’t stand it.
Look folks, extrapolate.
The entrenched government-powers that be… will do what ever they feel is necessary to survive. If that means being unfair to the holders of physical PM’s then so be it.
You all can spout off all you want… but the reality is that the current, sitting government has the power to make buying and selling PM’s a miserable experience.
What I would like to see, what would be a sign of evolving intelligence of bloggers and commenters to blogs…would be dialog about how to circumvent government restrictions.
As in, how do I sell my gold if there’s a 90% tax on selling, or onerous paperwork for all parties in the transaction.
That is what is coming down, ……deal with it sheeple.
Mr. comment
on :Â September 1st, 2010 at 9:57 pm
You say: ” As in, how do I sell my gold if there’s a 90% tax on selling, or onerous paperwork for all parties in the transaction”.  Â
Answer:  BLACK MARKET will prevail.  The Black Market is capitalism & Free Enterprise against a tyrannical Gov’t.  You either survive or you die !
Does that satisfy your question ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
SHTF America has some interesting info about gold on the Econ Page that is worth reading, but too long to quote here. Gold is global. Think global demand.
@Comments: Why would you buy it if you didn’t look into how or when to sell. You sound like your about to implode!!!!! Open up your eyes & look into the mirror to see intelligence (or lack of). Deal with it.
Amazes me how many people assume you have to “sell” gold/silver, as in convert it back to fiat notes, to buy something ? That simply isn’t the case.  For example, I recently offered my dentist a $10 gold eagle for a procedure he gets 700 FRNs for….he was quite happy to take the real money. I have done this with other purchases as well…..offer a pile of FRNs, and an equal value of gold/silver….you’d be amazed how many folks “go for the gold”.
True..it is NOT common, due to Gresham’s Law ( people hoard good money, and spend the bad money first )…but there is nothing to say you can’t simply circumvent the “conversion” process.
AND if you use US coin, it’s not “barter”…..it’s legal, competing, tender to the paper fiat. I paid $10 for the procedure….he got $10 income…..just like he would have in 1888 when that eagle was minted.
Try it sometime….you might just be surprised how easy it is.
Comments….. I am a strong believer in looking to history for answers to problems. most problems that happen, have happened before. This taxasation of gold sales is a problem. but just because the government tries to collect that tax, doesn’t mean people won’tt find a way to get arround it. I believe the black market will prevail. As long as a seller is willing to take your gold at a certain exchange rate for a product, a deal is made. the government doesn’t have to get involved.
    As far as confiscation goes, unless they come to you house with a gun drawn, how will they seize the gold. they don’t know what you did with it whenever. I also have a feeling that masses of people will simply ignore the rules, and do what they want. again, look at the history of the 1930’s. Some people ignored the law of mandatory turning in of gold, and held onto it. they made out ok.
    Nothing is written in stone, and I have a feeling that when millions of pissed of citizens balk at paying a 90% tax on gold sales, the PTB will back off. I thuink they will have bigger fish to fry.
    I predict the emergence of an enormous black market as the taxasation rates get higher and higher. If your money isn’t in a bank, it doesn’t exist. Figure out a way to avoid electronic tracking–aka paying cash for many things. very difficult to track. I have faith in people’s ability to avoid oppresive taxasation. With the current beatdown of oppresive laws and taxes to come, Americans are not in much of a mood for more opression. Avoidance of taxes and ways to get around them will soon be the norm of the day.
    If you don’t play in the game, you can get around the rules. Keep you money out of the bank, and pay cash. Simple.  Also, I don’t care what currency is mandated, I believe people will always be willing to take gold and silver as payment , irregardles of what the government does.
    Look at history folks, it tells you what you need to know.
@ comment, you said,
“What I would like to see, what would be a sign of evolving intelligence of bloggers and commenters to blogs…would be dialog about how to circumvent government restrictions.
As in, how do I sell my gold if there’s a 90% tax on selling, or onerous paperwork for all parties in the transaction.”
The same way you sell anything else illegal (drugs, guns, sex)
YOU JUST DO IT ANYWAY.
Comments….. And don’t forget, one of the tactics that the government uses against the people is “fear.” If you don’t turn in your gold, we’ll put you in jail forever. We’ll confiscate everything you own. Same difference as the health care. They will jail you and fine you if you don’t buy health care insurance. Once you understand their tactics, you dont have anything to fear. Fight them every step of the way. There’s too many of us and too few of them.
TnAndy, Greaseman & Humungus,
I agree completely with all of you. Strong & smart people will figure things out on their own & overcome any obstacle put in front of them. The black market will prevail. My previous concern was only dealing with cashing in precious metals “legitimately” if a electronic debit system comes into play for any/all transactions.  Life is like a game of chess, and the PTB are always trying to put you in a corner & oppress you, so you must always figure out how to stay away from the corner. Having an electronic means of purchasing/conducting all transactions will place everyone in a corner with oppression & heavy taxation.  Any attempt to confiscate precious metals will not be easy this time as compared to when FDR did it.   When the SOB bankers want all of your precious metals back, knowing full well it has significant value, then the black market will thrive, causing a bull market in the very thing(s) government doesn’t want you to have…. We all must learn from PROHIBITION. When gov’t says you can’t have something, that only makes it more attractive thorough black markets, As Clint Eastwood said in Heartbreak Ridge; You adapt, improvise & overcome !
Comments….. I have complete faith in my government—faith that they can’t do anything right!!  Just because they mandate this or that, I truly believe as things get worse, people will find ways to ‘get around’ the law. I see people more and more living a cash only existance. I have never seen so many people selling their household goods, or selling anything they can make a buck on, to make ends meet. This cash only transaction is obviously not reported on tax returns.  People that work flea markets for a living, are obviously not reporting that income on their taxes. More power to them.  As  things become harder and harder, people will use banks less and less, cause they don’t have any money to put in there anyway. Around here, ( central Florida), there is a heavy migrant population, legal and illegal. They don’t use banks. They use check cashing services of local businesses, and buy money orders to pay bills. Certainly, most people that still have incomes use standard banking services, but as more and more people fall under the lousy economic conditions, standard banking services will be less and less usefull.
      Back to my original point. have you ever seen the governemnt able to handle anything right?? They have trouble when all is well. As things sour, I believe they will have their hands full with masses of people crowding the entitlement offices everywhere, wondering when the next gubmint cheese is going to be passed out. Never underestimate the power of a good crisis to throw a monkey wrench in any plan. I see total chaos coming, as the government tries to deal with the ever increasing number of sheep, waiting for their next feeding time. Look back at the recent chaotic situation near Atlanta. The housing authority had 450 vouchers for reduced section 8 housing, and over 30,000 people showed up. Our government is clueless. the natives are restless, and I see nothing but a boiling pot getting ready to boil over.  Most of these sheep haven’t a clue how to adapt, improvise, and overcome. They are like a gerbal in cage. They have been trained to follow government rules, stand in line, and don’t rock the boat. Totally clueless, and hopeless.
     I do have faith in the prepared. Those that follow these boards already have a distinct advantage over these mindless sheep waiting for their next feeding. Black markets, individual effort and ingenuity, will suceed every time. There will be bumps, but preparation will win out over blind luck every time. I continuosly think of ways that I would handle coming problems.  I can’t help it, it’s just something I do. And as time goes on, the idea that this or that could never happen, has been replaced by scenerios that back up the obvious.  Folks,  the bad times are coming.  It is no longer a “that couldn’t happen” thing. It’s gonna happen. Your guess is as good as mine to when. But in the daily horrible economic news, day after day, I don’t think things can hold together much longer. Keep working your plan, as that’s about all we can rely on.  Good luck.
The “Companies” that come into town to buy gold & silver at hotels do not say who they really are….. They are happy to give you a check for your real money. Would not surprise me if it was “the gov.” or worse yet, banks that are buying. Paper & digits for your PM. Would your bank hold your metal as collateral? Would you trust them? Who pays in the end? The largest Ponzi game, government/banks…. Game over, tilt, reset.
If they want to confiscate my gold, they will have to find it. It is a big state and that will require a lot of digging. 🙂
Greaseman,
You & I think exactly alike.  Hell- you even sound like me when I’m discussing all of these issues to my friends. We know that there are an astronomical amount of mindless, dependant, clueless & unprepared people out there right now, but It’s always reassuring to know that there are many realistic, smart & rational people as well.Â
Be safe & God bless you & your family. That goes for everyone else reading this valuable information board.
A word of warning to all us preppers!
These posters here who say gold is pointless because the government will prohibit it are a sample of the sheeple who will be the first report you to the authorities when it IS illegal to hold.
We have all told friends and aquantances about gold and they know were holders of it. Now is a good time to start telling those people nothing more, and as the day approaches, to tell them were selling out!
Holders of gold will be at the centre of violence when TSHTF, james Dines believes this and I agree with his estimation. These same contentious people smirking at gold here today will be filled with envy and rage in the days to come. Be very warey of them.
Loose lips,
Sink ships my friends
i’m not doing anything or storing anything. when the shtf i will take all i need from prepper victims who talk too much. inexpensive and easy…
In short, buy gold and dont even consider selling it until its at parity with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (if you plan on selling it at all). But I would strongly encourage everyone to own at least 20 times more ounces of silver than they do gold and dont plan on selling it until the the silver/gold ratio gets to 16:1 (once again, if you plan on selling it at all). What I am pondering doing is not selling, but converting all my silver into gold if/when the ratio hits 16:1. As Greg McCoach says, its a lot easier to escape with all your wealth when its a couple handfuls of gold instead of a pallet full of silver.
Comments….. The only people I talk to about preps, are those that are of the same mindset. I don’t try and convince anyone anymore. it’s a waste of time. The most prevalent trend I see happening lately, is people who have never bought any precious metals of any kind, stepping up to the plate and buying. Their gut is telling them something is bad, and is getting ready to happen, and their gut is right. When I visit the local coin store, it is interesting to hear what the fist timers are saying.  The common thought is , they are scared. They should be. But again, chance favors the prepared.
    Just when i think I have enough silver, I have to buy some more. I love buying pre 64 junk silver coins. Small denominations, easily accepted as money, and everyone is familiar with it. Â
     Very soon, as the price of gold and silver start their coming price increase, more and more people will be afraid of missing the boat, and not being able to buy any. The buying frenzy will begin.  Big daily price increases  will be normal. And the higher the price, the greater the demand will be.  I don’t feel we have much longer before we see this trend. It has already started to some degree. Things are going to get real intersting soon. Buckle up, cause things that you’ve been wondering when they were going to happen, are going to happpen soon. Your gut feelings will prove accurate.
     Human nature never changes. That’s the only sure thing you can bet on.
Silver’s up .36¢ today, that’s almost $2 over the last two weeks.  Jump on now or regret it later boys!
I see a giant reverse head and shoulders pattern in silver, dating back to March 2008. Anyone else notice that? Technically speaking it should be taking off within the next 1-2 months.
here is my favourite silver chart. When I first saw it back in 2004 I thought I had won the lottery
http://www.gold-speculator.com/attachments/silverstockreport/5521d1258493894-why-silver-will-better-investment-than-gold-650-silver-prices.gif
I have a question for all you experts out there. I am relatively new at aquiring gold/silver. I have lowered my contribution into 401K to almost nothing and have been buying gold/silver with the funds I would have used for the 401k for about a year. My question is this….Can anyone tell me how much (at a min) I should have? I feel you can never have TOO MUCH but I was wondering if there a percent of my income or a min you should have in case the SHTF. Also, I need more info on the transition period…ie junk…or just silver eagles?….I found this site extremely helpful. Thanks to allÂ
Hi Tina; Â I am certainly not an expert, but I look at it this way. Â I have two retirement funds through my construction union, and a third 401K through my company that gets profit sharing funds. Â The first two funds have more in them that the 401k, because I’ve only been with this company for eight years, but overall, all three are doing just OK. Â If you wanted to count Social Security as part of your retirement, then you might include it with these others.
I wanted to start another fund so that I could save more, and thought that a Roth IRA would be the way to do it. Â However, after thinking about it, I realized that a Roth would just be another stock market/real estate fund, and would probably go up or down right along with the other funds. Â What the hell is the point of that?
Instead of doing the Roth, I decided to buy PM’s (silver in particular) with the money I would have put in the Roth. Â I try for a minimum of $100 per week. Â Most weeks I make it, sometimes I don’t. Â I don’t get down on myself if I don’t make my “minimum”, I just do the best I can.
Most “professionals” will tell you that it’s a great idea to have PM’s as part of your portfolio, then they will try to soak up every dollar you have on whatever stocks they’re pimping (and pimping is exactly what it is). Â My personal opinion is that I want PM’s to make up at least 25% of my holdings. Â I have a long way to go before I get to that level.
The other concern with PM’s is the storing of them. Â Don’t ever buy into these deals where they hold the PM’s for you, that’s a scam. Â Go to the rare coin store and buy your PM’s and take them home. Â I am getting to the point where I need a safe pretty soon. Â You will get there too, just keep going.
Junk silver (pre 1964 coins) and Silver Eagles (among others) are going to be the most recognizable forms of silver in a SHTF scenario. Â You might also get some bars (5 and 10 ounce). Â Remember that a Silver Eagle is really just a $20 bill, (at today’s prices). Â So if you were going to buy things, and use silver as money, how would you want to pay? Â Do you walk into the store with bags full of small change right now, or do you take larger bills along with you? Â It’s the same thing, just a new way of thinking about it.
Comments….. I also have been buying PM’s for a while. I have a safe, but don’t keep the stuff there too much. Dig yourself a nice hole, and go from there. Same thing with cash. if it isn’t in the bank, it doesn’t exist.
    My fav is the pre 64 junk silver. Small size, easily divisible, and everyone knows what it is. storing of quantities is a bit of a problem, but it’s a problem I don’t mind dealing with.
   Something to remember. The government has already said they plan to make people put their 401ks into useless government bonds, and take control of them in one manner or another. That’s government speak for, “we want that money”. Don’t worrry about the penalties. if you can’t do what you want with your own money, what’s the point. The president said they are worried about the safety of everyones 401k. They’re just worried cause that’s the only money they haven’t stolen yet, cause it’s still in private hands. These thieving bastards want it all, and they won’t stop till they have it.
     if chaotic conditions start, the FED will close off trading of the market, and you won’t be able to cash out your fund. Get what you want NOW. You don’t have much time. The money that’s in these 401k’s is being stolen through inflation anyway. You might as well buy something that’s going to really be worth something one day.
Tina, have you acquired your other preps yet? Since you have been allocating your 401k funds to silver for about a year, you now have something; although you cannot be too rich, too thin, have too much ammo , or enough PM.
Do you have three years of staples stored for your family like the Mormans do? Not Morman myself but they are good examples to follow for SHTF. Lots of fresh water in 2 or 3 liter plastic bottles? How about some freezed dried for good measure? Special non-electric, hand crank equipment? How about a wind turbine and deep cycle batteries?Â
Lots of things to load up on depending upon your personal situation. All that silver everyone is buying may start chasing necessities when the SHTF, so any increased value may be lost to acquire them later if they are not readily available. There’s your hyper-inflation.
With a years supply of silver under your belt I would start buying freezed dried from Ready Nutrition, somewhere on this page. Its expensive but lasts for a long tme if properly stored in a cool dry place.
Just saying ……
Thanks so much for all the help. I live in the country (farmland) and own about 3 acres w/ House. That is ALMOST paid off. Have another 24 acres accross the county. We have well water and actually still have an old hand pump well on the preperty (hope it still works). We have several old hit and miss engines (remember those??). Have a fair amount of food but no where near enough. Stocked up pleanty on the eve of 2000 only to find that for the next 2 years I had to eat SPAM…haha. We own guns and hunt but I know I need to do more saving. I’ve been buying a lot more silver then gold. Probably 80% / 20%.  Tapping the balance of the 401K may be the thing. Just makes me sick to my stomach to think that they may try to grab that next.Â
Although I feel I have a LONG way to go. Living where I do, I feel I have a major advantage over most. I do not know how people who live in cities can survive when everything they do or have is controlled by someone else. Supply and demand. During the depression the ones that survived the best were people who lived in the counrty and ate off the land….other stood on a soup line.
You’re doing awesome Tina! Â I’d forget about moving to town and go give the old hand-pump well a try and see what happens. Â I bet that even if it’s got a bunch of rust in there, you could pump it out pretty easy. Â Durango Kidd is right, IMO, buying silver is very important, but not to the point that you short other preps in order to get it done. Â Everything in balance.
Here’s an easy prep, and especially since you’ve got PM’s to hide.  Go to the sporting good store and buy a boatload of BB’s.  10-20 thousand should be enough.  You could also buy steel shot like they use for commercial bead blasting applications.  Comes in a number of different sizes, and in bags from 20 to 100 pounds, cheap too.  Get out the old broadcast spreader and load up.  Do the whole yard, under the house, the attic, hell, do the entire property.  Now, lets just see the government stooges try to find your stash with a metal detector!  hehehe  🙂
Greaseman,
Do you know of a time line when these SOB’s want to eventually get people’s 401K’s ??  I have read articles suggesting this.  I work for the state & have my regular Public Employeee Retirement (PERS) retirement, along with a state run 401K (deferred Compensation plan).  I’m wondering if public employee’s would be targeted for this 401K takeover as well- the same as private sector 401K?   Any ideas?
Tina, there is one more thing to consider when buying silver, and that is the stage we are in of the PM bull market. I buy gold and silver as savings protection but the vast majority see it as just another asset class to buy and hold till the peak and then sell sell sell.
This affects us the same way the bubble in housing affected us and if you needed a house to live in circ 2004 you were forced to pay a huge premium because of the bubble.
Smart money is already invested in silver and gold, institutional money is currently flooding in and if the pattern runs true soon the public will enter and push the price way high.
I myself am getting very reluctant to buy any gold and silver now as I hold about 35% of my savings for the future in the two and the price “especially gold” is getting high compared to when I began. You need to look carefully at the amount you want to own and I would suggest cashing in some other investments and purchasing the lot now before the public pushes the price too high.
A minimum of say 15% is now recommended by many advisers but considering the coming turmoil to me this is way too low. Eric sprott the billionare investor has nearly ALL of his wealth in gold and silver physical and stocks so its your call but don’t wait too long.
@Tina – Listen to the guys above. Tons of great advise. My reason for being here a lot.  Your doing excellent.   One point I’ll make….. I got rid of my 401K, took the loss and bought PM’s. That was over a year ago and I’m not in the least bit unhappy. I believe the idiots in washington will go after those next. It’s just a bunch of worthless paper really.  Maybe even consider trading it in and paying off your home. Freedom from debt is a most wonderful experience! Peace.
Tina: Jonny V has a great idea, unless YOU forget where you put it. And then YOUR metal detector won’t work either. hehehe
Seriously though, it sounds like you will have all of the fresh food you need or can kan, so I think I would buy some freeze dried and tuck it away; or the equipment to do it yourself on some of the food you grow. Three acres is enough to handle the entire family.
Good luck. Sounds like you are ahead of the game.
Put another way, the physical PM’s are the solid foundation of my asset “pyramid”. Â I expect that a one ounce silver “round” will always be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of what I paid for it. Â I hope that the price goes real high, but even if it stays relatively the same, I consider that a success. Â There is very little risk in owning PM’s (theft or loss about the only one I can think up). Â Other investments are FAR riskier (stocks, mutual funds, pensions, 401k’s, etc).
The job of this part of the pyramid is to retain value so that I will never be totally broke. Â We try to make profit on the other things, and if PM’s generate a big profit, then that’s like a hot ham ‘n swiss with a big bag of chips baby!
I know that some smart-ass is thinking that the government stooges will break out their discriminating metal detector on my property. Â (For those who don’t know) there are metal detectors that can be set to only pick up precious metals (they discriminate out the other stuff). Â HA! I am already ahead of you. Â You can buy sterling silver shot (similar to what a bead blaster would use, only silver) from APMEX. Â Go to their website, click on silver, and then look under “Industrial Silver”. Â You’ll see the bags of shot. Â Haven’t bought one yet, but I’m going to. Â Spreading it would suck, I would really hate that, but if it protected the whole stash, then you’d have to do it.
I don’t trust the government.
Comments…..@eagleclaw:
  I have not heard any exact date mentioned. But, if the government is talking about it, they are going to do it. I personally heard Osama Been Lyin, mention that “we need to make people’s 401K’s safe” Safe from who??? Mine is perfectly safe where it is. But not for long. There is an estimated 35 trillion in private 401k’s. The government is salivating to get this money. I predict they will use the carrot on a stick method first, then later, force people into their funds. I have read, and agree with one opinion on what the government will do first. I think they will force pension fund managers to buy worthless government paper, as part of a first move at takeover. They will make removing funds harder and harder. When the SHTF, they will close trading on the stock exchange, effectively locking your money under their control.
     The easiest way to deal with it, is to remove the funds. Pay the penalties and get out of their system.  As I’m over 55, I have been removing my funds regularily, and as I retired from the company that the 401k came from, it only counts as income. I have the bank hold out 10%, and send it to the IRS, and so far, it has worked out good. All legal, all above board.
     I hate with a passion to remove the money from the 401k, but I can see the handwriting on the wall. The government WILL seize this money, and put it under control sooner or later. I believe within 2 years myself. But sooner as the too big to fails start dropping like flies. I think they are toast within 6 months from now, which means the whole country is toast in 6 months or so.
    I have been buying mostly pre 64 circulated silver coins, as the preminum on these is the lowest over spot price–the most bang for the buck… I like gold also, but I think the value of silver will appreciate at a faster rate than gold, as it is more of an industrial metal, and is in shorter supply.
     If you buy PM’s, do not under any circumstance keep them in a safety deposit box in the bank. The government seized these assets once, and they will do it again, as witnessed by what happened in the 1930’s. Bury the stuff on your property, or find a good hiding place.
     I absolutely believe that buying PM’s is a total no brainer. You simply can’t lose. I’m not scared of a price drop, as I know with conditions as they are, both metals are destined to rise in price significantly, and soon I think.
     Do whatever you’re going to do quickly. The coin store I buy from frequently looks like it’s been robbed. But it’s simply that they can’t keep gold and silver in stock. It’s flying off the shelves, and the mail order, which is their biggest business, has trouble keeping up with orders.Â
    Big changes are under way. as the price increase, people will get in a panic to get some PM’s before they get more expensive. That’s happening now. Very little time left. Good luck guys.
A note on metal detectors
I have an old Garrett deepseeker which uses VLF transmissions into the earth to detect metals. One part of the tuning up process is to balance it for iron content in the ground, so while leaving metals around provides some cover, a large stash of silver will return a differet signal and stand out.
Your best protection in burying PM’s is to go deep (a half metre at least) and place them in a polypipe with a screw cap one end. Go deep or go under the side of a concrete slab, etc.
It amazes me the people that think they own their paper investments. Read the fine print. Your broker does. They owe you. They invest with your money & charge you a fee! Do you trust them? The “closest” that you own your own paper is a term life insurance policy or stock (if you hold the stock certificates in hand). Good luck on those two when something bad happens. One can’t be taxed yet & the other only seems feasible if the company is solvent or wants to. Ponzi game.
I do thank all of you for the help. Wooba…I have already noticed a higher demand, just since I have started a year ago.  Just watch Ebay and you can see that there are many people placing bids for high premiums over spot.
My hubby and I went to a BIG flea market yesterday looking for silver (or things I could resell so I could buy more silver). Silver was all that people were talking about. Everyone that passed by was talking about it. My husband actually looked at me at one point and asked me “has somethings happended we don’t know about”? Guns, ammo and silver were definately the big sellers of the day, Tons of people were huddled around these sellers……The craziness has begun.Â
I messed around on ebay for a while, and looked at other sites where I could buy silver too. Â Once I added up what they were asking “over spot” with the shipping charges, I discovered that my local rare coin store was much more competitive price-wise. Â Plus, I now have a relationship with a guy who’s going to be more and more important as things get worse and worse. Â I’d hate to be trying to buy or sell silver, and the first time I meet them is when the S has already HTF. Â These relationships are crucial!
Plus, I pay less, I pick out the ones (or mix) that I want, and I take it home right then and there. Â No lose situation.