This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at his Alt-Market.com site.
Editor’s Comment: The crash in oil and gas prices was deliberately accelerated to undermine several nations around the world whose economies, and social welfare systems, have been overly dependent upon high prices. The prices have destroyed thousands of jobs inside the United States, and yet it is just the beginning.
Like other strands of the economy, energy prices are closely tied to the rest of the global market, and extreme pressure on one will likely tug on the other. The pumping of unlimited fiat money from the Federal Reserve has artificially propped up the stock market, and given the false illusion of recovery – but what goes up must come down, especially when it is based on little else but a hope and a dream.
Oil Market Hype And Crisis Signal Greater Troubles Ahead
by Brandon Smith
Most people are not avid followers of economic news, and I don’t blame them. Financial analysis is for the most part boring and tedious and you would have to be some kind of crazy to commit a large slice of your life to it.
However, those of us who are that crazy do what we do (and do it independently) because underneath all the data and the charts and the overnight news feeds we see keys to future events. And if we are observant enough, we might even be able to warn people who don’t have the same proclivities but still deserve to know the reality of the world around them.
Most Americans and much of the rest of the planet probably was not aware of the recent oil producer’s meeting in Doha, Qatar this past Sunday, nor would they have cared. A bunch of rich guys in white dresses talking about oil production levels does not exactly spark the imagination. What the masses missed, though, was an event that could affect them deeply and economically for many months to come.
A little background highly summarized…
After the derivatives and credit crisis launched in 2007/2008 the Federal Reserve responded to disastrous levels of deflation with a fiat money printing bonanza. Everyone knows this. The problem was the central bankers never had any intention of actually using all that “cash” to support Main Street or the fundamentals of the economy.
Instead, they used their printing press and digital loan transfers to artificially re-inflate the coffers of banks and major corporations. It was a blood transfusion for vampires, if you will.
Through the use of TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), quantitative easing, artificially low interest rates, and probably a host of secret actions we’ll never hear about, a steady stream of capital (or debt, to be more precise) was pumped through corporate conduits. The goal? To keep the U.S. from immediate bankruptcy through treasury bond purchases, to boost bank credit, and to allow companies to institute an unprecedented program of stock buybacks (a method by which a corporation buys back its own shares to reduce the amount on the market, thereby manipulating the value of the remaining shares to higher prices).
As the former head of the Federal Reserve Dallas branch, Richard Fisher admitted in an interview with CNBC:
“What the Fed did — and I was part of that group — is we front-loaded a tremendous market rally, starting in 2009.
It’s sort of what I call the “reverse Whimpy factor” — give me two hamburgers today for one tomorrow.”
Why would the Fed want to engineer a hollow rally in stocks? As I have said in the past, they did this because they know that the average American watches about 15 minutes of television news a day and gauges the health of the economy only on whether the Dow is green or red. From 2009 to 2015, the Fed felt it needed to support markets through fiat and keep the public placated and apathetic.
Stocks and bonds were not the only assets being propped up by the Fed, though. In tandem, oil markets were artificially inflated.
Oil suffered a historic spike in 2008, then collapsed to near $40 (WTI). Starting in 2009 and the initiation of major stimulus measures by the Fed, oil prices came back with a vengeance; almost as if the spike in 2008 was merely a measure to psychologically prepare the public for what was to come. In 2010 prices climbed near the $90 mark, then in 2011 they peaked at around $115 a barrel.
Then, something magical happened — in December, 2013, the Fed announced the Taper of QE3, something very few people predicted would actually happen (you can read this article breaking down why I predicted it would happen).
The taper involved slowly cycling out Fed purchases a month at a time. By mid-2014 the taper was nearing completion. Suddenly, oil markets began to tank. By October, 2014 the Fed finished the taper and oil collapsed, from $95 a barrel to a low of under $30 a barrel at the beginning of 2016. The correlation between the Fed taper and the overwhelming drop in oil prices is undeniable. Clearly, high oil prices were primarily dependent on Fed QE.
While equities fluctuated heavily after the end of QE3, they were still supported by the Fed’s other pillar – near zero interest rates. NIRP allowed the Fed to continue funneling cheap or free money to banks and corporations so they could keep stock buybacks rolling, but oil was done for.
Now, until recently, oil markets have NOT reflected the true state of the global economy. All other fundamental indicators have been in decline since the crash of 2008, including global exports, imports, the Baltic Dry Index, manufacturing, wages, real employment numbers, etc. Oil consumption in the U.S., according to the World Economic Forum, has sunk to lows not seen since 1997. Current levels of oil consumption are FAR below projections made in 2003 by the Energy Information Administration. By most tangible measurements, we never left the crisis of 2008.
Oil demand continued to fall but prices remained high because of Fed intervention. My theory: As with stocks, the Fed at that time needed to pump up the only other indicator the mainstream might notice as a sign of dangerous deflation – energy prices. Dwindling demand is the real problem being hidden in chaos surrounding arguments over production. The establishment prefers we focus completely on supply while ignoring the warnings of falling demand.
QE was the first pillar to be pulled from the false recovery, and oil markets plunged. At the end of 2015, the Fed removed the second pillar of NIRP and raised interest rates. OPEC members met to discuss a possible production freeze agreement but the conference failed to produce anything legitimate. This resulted in stocks crashing in extreme volatility to meet up with oil.
Then something magical happened once again. In mid-February, OPEC members and non-members arranged yet another meeting, this time with much fanfare and steady rumors hinting at a guaranteed production freeze deal. Oil began to climb back from the brink, and stocks rallied over the course of six more weeks. All eyes were on Doha, Qatar and the oil agreement that would “save markets”.
I bring up the recent history of oil markets because I want to give some perspective to those people who suffer from a disease I call “ticker tracking”. This disease causes extreme short attention span issues and loss of long term memory. The dopamine addiction of ticker tracking makes people forget about long term trends and their relation to the events of today, to the point that they ignore all fundamentals in the name of watching little red and green lines day in and day out.
For example, the fact that the Doha meeting failed but did not result in an immediate and massive slide in oil and stocks sent ticker trackers crowing that the market “will never be allowed to fall”. Their affliction keeps them from realizing that the effects of Doha, like any other major financial event in the past, take TIME to set in. Not to mention, they seem oblivious to the implications of oil struggling to move comfortably beyond $40 a barrel.
Remember, oil was around $60 (WTI) six months ago, and had held over $100 (WTI) for years before then. The crash in oil markets has ALREADY happened, folks. What we are witnessing today is the last vestiges of that crash playing out in extreme volatility. Now we wait for equities to fall and meet oil, as they did at the beginning of 2016, and as they eventually will again.
Are stocks tracking oil prices? It may not be an absolute correlation, and they do tend to decouple at times, but the overall trend has been consistent; when oil falls, stocks loosely follow.
The Doha meeting was always a farce; that much was obvious before it even took place. Bloomberg along with other media outlets were planting rumors of backroom deals between Russia and Saudi Arabia before the Doha event which would solidify a production freeze. Numerous mainstream “experts” claimed an agreement was essentially a sure thing. Even some skeptics within the liberty movement were doubtless that a deal was certain because “the internationalists would never allow oil prices to continue to drag on the public perception of the economy.”
First, I am not a believer in the idea that global economic decisions are really made at these meetings. Any nation that has a central bank that is tied to the Bank of International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund is a CONTROLLED nation. Period. Economic arrangements are handed down from on high, not debated spontaneously in open forums. Read Harper’s 1983 article on the BIS titled “Ruling The World Of Money” for more information on how globalists control the economic policies of nations.
Second, even if a person believes that such vital economic decisions as a global oil production freeze are decided in closed meetings while the press waits just outside, why would anyone buy into the Doha event?
I am not quite sure why some people were gullible enough to think that after 15 YEARS of oil producers refusing to come together on any form of meaningful agreement they would suddenly shake hands this year. The only hope markets had was the possibility that the Doha meeting would result in an empty deal that they could spin in the mainstream news as a legitimate “production freeze.” Apparently they won’t even be getting that.
The Doha talks ended in failure. All the signs said this would happen. As I wrote in my article “Lost Faith In Central Banks And The Economic End Game”:
For anyone who was betting on oil markets to continue their rally past the $40 per barrel mark, there was a lot of bad news. Saudi Arabia crushed optimism by announcing that it would not be entertaining a “production freeze” proposal unless ALL other oil producing nations, including Iran, also agreed to it.
Iran then doubly crushed optimism by announcing an increase in production rather than committing to a freeze.
Russia then administered the final blow by releasing data showing that their oil output had risen to historic levels, indicating that they will not be entering into any agreement on a production freeze.
Besides a recent overly optimistic (and rather suspicious inventory draw) which has caused a short term rebound, all indicators show that oil will be headed back to the lows seen at the beginning of this year.
The effects of the Doha failure were delayed by a convenient labor strike in Kuwait, which caused algo trading computers to buy en masse despite the negative news. As I pointed out on Monday, though, the Kuwait situation would be very short lived. Now, it is time to watch and wait for Saudi Arabia and Iran to begin battling over market share and increasing production even more. These things take a little time to develop.
Currently oil has dropped back below $40(WTI) and markets are extremely volatile. I do not believe the failure of the Doha meeting alone will translate to a fantastic drop in stocks. But, I do believe that it is a very heavy straw added to the camel’s back, and there is a negative trend developing before our very eyes that will become apparent in the next couple of months.
As I have said in the past, a market entirely supported by rumors and hearsay can rally quickly, but also lose all gains at the drop of a hat. What the Doha debacle represents is a signal that the establishment is incrementally abandoning support for market systems. This is translating to a loss of faith in central banks and major financial institutions.
On top of this, look at the incredible amount of misinformation and misdirection that went into Doha, now completely exposed. The truth is crystal; the MSM lied and obfuscated helping the establishment to drive up oil prices and stocks, all for a mere six to eight weeks of market security. As soon as these lies were revealed, volatility began to return.
If the oil market bubble can implode (as it already has) in such a way due to the striking of fundamentals, then stocks can also be destabilized as well. It will happen, and I believe 2016 is the year it will happen.
There are those out there that miscalled how the Doha meeting would end because they were blinded by a particularly dangerous bias; they have assumed that central banks and internationalists want or need to continue propping up markets indefinitely. This is not necessarily true. In fact, I have outlined time and again evidence showing that they are planning the opposite. That is to say, they are planning to deliberately bring down markets in a controlled manner.
Oil was the most recent system to be undermined, and stocks will likely follow before the year is out. The fall in oil and the circus at Doha signals a change in strategy by the globalists. It signals a shift towards the controlled demolition of our economy and the centralization of fiscal power into a single global administrative entity. Order out of chaos.
There is a steady stream of events in the next few months that can be used as a steam valve for sinking global markets. Watch the April Fed meeting carefully. The Fed recently held two “emergency meetings” along with a third surprise meeting between President Barack Obama and Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The last time such a meeting occurred the Fed hiked rates less than a month later. I expect that the Fed will raise rates once again either this month or in June.
Also, watch for the Brexit (the British exit from the EU) referendum in June. Such a development would greatly shock an already unsteady Europe as well as the rest of the West.
And, of course, watch for trends in oil and stocks, but do not get caught up in the day-to-day mindlessness of ticker tracking. It is pointless and will not help you to understand what is happening economically. In any economic crisis, stocks are the LAST indicator to turn negative and daily analysis by itself is in no way a crystal ball.
The next couple of months should be very interesting. Stay vigilant.
This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at his Alt-Market.com site.
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My theory is they drove the price down after a lot of smaller companies got in on the oil boom and got infrastructure built. Just like the great depression they bankrupt the companies and buy the completed setups for pennies on the dollar and expand their control of oil. Seems to be their M.O.
Dam good theory, and i agree with it
i think it more than a theory, BIG business always takes out the small guy IF he has the opportunity and so they did. OIL controls the world and until that changes it is a dirty business.
if you control the oil and the food you have most people at your finger tips and that is what need to be stopped!
Government already has other secret forms of energy in store after the oil goes south. They will use up most of the oil and its infrastructure first. too much money tied up in it.
Genius; Your theory maybe correct.
A lot of small cap oil companies built massive amounts of infrastructure and now they’re going broke just as they started to make big money.
Genius:
Your theory sounds about right.
@ genius
Oil has always done this. It is all about bilking the investors.
@ Mac
How about a few more prepping articles?
You dont even need an article.
Just a “Lets discuss XXX” Line will do.
I’m no genius, never claim to be, my thought is it was a plan all along by between the fed and the BLS, one to keep savers hosed on fixed incomes, and the other to keep em hosed if on SS with no COLA’s for as long as they can claim there’s no inflation due to the fact that oil is the main driver of the COLA figures, as long as they can keep it way down they can keep giving 0 COLA, while the Fed keeps cryin there’s no inflation and keeps the rates worthless for savers.
Are we broke, yeah, but this is what I think they figure is a way to justify it all.
Why has Brandon and others Not even mentioned that due to the mid east wars that GW started after 9/11 FF events.
The total amount of daily barrels times Millions used per day sky rocketed?
Probably at least a full one third if not more yet of usa daily multi millions barrels usage was a Dircet effect of massive military and navel use of oil resources.
To totally ignore this issue when figuring out reasons as to why oil use has dropped so low now?….just does not make sense at all…And once such war use is included it may/probably/definatly creates an entire new set of facts and realities eh.
I do not know the exact amount of barrels oil per day it takes to keep the usa navy afloat when most all of its Ships and F-16’s etc are being constantly deployed 24/7/365, or untill 15 years passes by and 99% of mid east region has been fully bombed and war’d back to stone age eras?
But I do recall on some discovery channel show or whatever it was, that just one single Air Craft carrier ship that uses Oil as its main Fuel, goes thru aprox 500,000 Gal’s fuel oil per every two weeks…Plus other very large ships take that supply To said carrier ships each two weeks and they too consume massive amounts oil.
Add in what is it now? 14 carrier ships is it?…Each with about 85 Fighter jets that refuel aprox 2,500 Gal jet fuel Per every Two hrs in flight, which fly sortee’s around the clock to carpet bomb Democracy and Liberty into said mid east nations…
And as I stated prior if I recall correct we were told that during this extended campaign to bring democracy and Peace thru carpet bombings 24/7, it causes per day Oil barrels usage to rise more than a third greater per day.
Somehweres around on avg of an extra 8+-Million barels per day for usa military use alone during the “conflict” was what I recall reporters telling us of. Deduct that number barels and todays numbers sounds correct eh?
So now that much Less such mid east war activity is going on…Ergo Much Less barrels per day is being consumed correct?
So to fully ignore what Must be The Number One largest single use of per day oil supplies, which Is the USA Fed Govnt and Its entire combined Military branches, seems to be a huge oversight mistake…And once it Is taken into consideration, will definatly Change the main theory as presented in this article no?
However as a Lone consumer of said Oil in form of Premium gasoline as well as Reg unleaded lower octane level for both my ford truck and vette, I am sure Glad pump prices dropped so low and I for one hope prices remains Low or go lower yet!
Also of Note: Just last week my areas local grocery stores weekly ad papers that arrive every saturday in my us mailbox with ads of foods etc prices and sales…
Had a written message for stores concumers/buyers that outlined how happy they were to inform Us consumers of foods etc, that we should Now begin to see prices drop on many items weekly bought…And to look for even more various combined grocery items prices to keep dropping as they pass on their lower costs and fees to us the consumers.
While not mentioned in that message that I am aware of, it is No Doubt due to much Lower Oil per barrel and over the road fuels prices at pump drops which has resulted in typical grocery store items prices being lowered.
And so far Yes in past few weeks many weekly bought items have seen prices lower and Noticably lower too!
Which is right in line with what I was predicting when I reply commented prior about these price issues etc.
I also do NOT believe that those who control all but 3-4 of the 200+ nations globally, are really so concerned with maintaining any type false sense of “all is still swell in usa land” attitudes of the nations average regular mid class folks…
Those who controls it all or close to all of it now, are very arrogant, with massive huge egos, and consider themselves to be as if a “Little human God” and they also believe that when the entire group of “Little gods” join as One, that they Then become a real true God! and a real god of such stature and Power that they even Surpass the One Real actual God the Father, and therefore can and do, do whatever they choose since even God cannot stop their insanity and lust greed etc….yes they Are wrong as can be….but not in Their evil demonic minds.
So while yes general JQP- public sentament plays a role to an extent…I do not believe it really matters to those in charge as much as some folks claim or think of it as, so almighty important to keep people in a belief of all is swell and never shall get worse or whatever.
98-99% of americans today basically care not about most every issue period..They mostly live day to day and pay little to No atten to economic or oil price or stock market whims or moves etc…Unless of course Gas prices go UP or UP alot higher quickly!….Then is when avg folks kinda complain a bit and go do it again and simply Pay the going price period….Them in controls also Knows of this attitude too…so whatever their plans are or will be probably has much Less concerns of what the usa folk want or think either way…As is to be expected from those “little gods” which believe themselves greater than the Real God when their group join as One and becomes a big god, The Biggest ever in entire universe…It is what too much $$$$ Shekkels does to the satanic demonic mind they possess….
“The Yellowstone story is just bunk”
DICKLESS ASS, ARE THE EARTHQUAKES AND ERUPTIONS GOING ON ALL OVER THE EARTH AS WE SPEAK BUNK AS WELL?
COULD THERE LIKE, POSSIBLY BE ANY CONNECTION AND STUFF? SHERLOCK?
HOLY ROCKS YOU BABY BOOMERS HAVE THE COGNITIVE FUNCTIONS OF A PENCIL ERASER
JARED TAYLOR TO DEBATE ON A COLLEGE CAMPUS SOON…
I agree, to a certain degree your correct…
I have traded oil for many years. So here is my 2 cents about ‘basic’ oil factors.
I believe oil prices should fall, possibly hard, in coming weeks or months. That is because fundamentals do not support the present price in the $40 dollar range. Prices should fall to around $30 once the empty nature of an OPEC-plus-Russia-plus-Iran production freeze is understood. A return to the grim reality of over-supply and the weakness of the world economy could push prices well into the $20’s.
Keep in mind there is always crazy side of oil that may surface from political intervention that may delay ‘fundamentals’ as it has many times in the past or even cause oil “panic” increases. Then there is the last factor of negative correlation between the value of the dollar and world oil prices that is normally in play.
Then the last factor that has the U.S. oil patch on edge because a report (business services firm Deloitte) stated that up to a third of U.S. oil and gas production and exploration companies are at high risk of going bankrupt in 2016 because of low oil prices. This all started when oil prices were comfortably in the $90-$100 range and the shale oil boom took off, companies took on tons of debt to fund expensive drilling. But the ensuing surge in U.S. oil production created an epic supply glut that caused crude to crash. So at present this would be 175 companies waiting to go under from low oil prices and tons of debt.
In all of this the risk to the stock market comes from via the bond holders of the bankruptcy of these U.S. oil and gas production and exploration companies with huge debt. The bond defaults will roll over into stocks like Chesapeake Energy Corp and Linn Energy whose stocks have been crippled by falling oil prices. Who buys these gems up is another story
but but but according to everyone the Chinese stock market caused the “big one” back in January..!!
https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/chinas-economy-crumbling-second-crash-of-7-percent-triggers-emergency-shutdown-of-markets_01072016#comment-3544010
mod, kill this comment. I’m not being productive.
We really do not need other Nations when we The Americans have Plenty of oil ourselves… Obama wants Muslim Brotherhood to have control of it
This all may come to fruition, but today the stock market parties like it’s 1999!
Brandon;
Hello, and I appreciate your comments. Obviously, you like most of the rest of us, have to put food on the table and fuel in the rig. What vehicles for creation of wealth do you subscribe to? I think that you are a young man, and I base that solely on a picture some time ago with you, I assume holding a rife.
It would certainly seem that you shun equities. Savings don’t really do too well. Metal has only been volatile to the downside in recent years. If I could go back some years I would probably invest in Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi. The earlier investors made huge amounts of money if they didn’t assume it would go on forever and spend every last cent.
Not being a contrarian here I would just be interested in where you put your money. I try and keep an open mind, especially when it comes to making a living. Thanks
For those who haven’t bought extra food, now is the time. Buy in bulk. Bob’s Red Mill.com has free shipping for two days.
Stock up on water. When reality hits the average person, you will likely want to avoid shopping. So if you need to shop, now would be the time to do it.
I hope it doesn’t get as bad as it has in other countries. I’m glad I live a little way out of town. If things fall apart. I guess I’ll just stay home, tend the chickens, and read a lot. Hey, that’s pretty much what I’m doing now. Except for going into town to use Wifi.
“The Truth About Cancer The Global Quest ” is on episode eight of the nine part series. Free. It is worth watching. It will help you to stay healthy in general. Not just avoid Cancer, as if that isn’t reason enough. Be well all.
Thanks for the recommendation on that nine part series. Family is being attacked by cancer and chemo as I write. This blog is a gold mine of information in the comments!
I am ready as best as I can be but always looking to fine tune things. This is an extra for long term preps.
Starting to buy ammo in the calibers of handguns I do not own.
Might come across a good hand gun that is out of ammo. So one box of all hand gun ammo to set aside. Do have any .17 cal. Many say it real fast. Gets expensive at the higher cals.
Anon;
May not be a bad idea. Yes I do have a .17 and a bunch of ammo. I bought it mainly for varmints but it is a hot load and although it not a big slug it would sure send me packing if I was in danger of being hit by one. By the way, if you get a .17 I would advise the bull barrel version and good optics.
skeptic
The Bull Barrel is a good idea if you can get it.
Acts like a heat sink and displaces the temp of faster or hot loads. Good optics are always a plus. Don’t go cheap on the mounts either.
Why people would go out and buy $600 to $1000 scope and use $39.95 mounts rings.
On the subject of general prepping, I got a message from Fast Growing Trees a week or two back saying they were having a nationwide shortage of fruit trees. So, if there are fruit trees that you want to put in the ground this year, sooner might be better than later. It’s especially concerning, as a shortage has a tendency to snarl up the nurseries for 3-5 years since it takes that long to grow new stock.
Death by a thousand cuts.
I have thought for a while what Genius said. He must be right. I’ll bet taxpayers are paying the bill and banks are getting the assets.
The air is being let out of the tires slowly. My SIL is being deployed to the ME again. We are looking to move my daughter and grandkids out of the city to be closer to us.
It may have been in their best interest to freeze production in the oil producing nations, but with Russia hurting and Iran in the game ( not to mention Venezuela) it is going to continue to be an oil gutted world for awhile.
“Ruling the World of Money” should be a must-read for all students in order to graduate high school.
“Now, until recently, oil markets have NOT reflected the true state of the global economy.”
I would suggest that the oil markets do not NOW, NOT YET reflect the true state of the global economy. Nor do they reflect the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand; which is not likely to change anytime soon, without war.
Someone said here several years ago, that not only was the world “awash” in oil & gas, but that fuel efficient cars and electric cars would dramatically reduce demand (consumption), and that we are in an energy revolution, with alt energy cutting into O&G consumption; while others here were screaming “peak oil”.
Not long ago, someone here said that oil & gas prices would “magically” pop allowing the banks to foreclose on these assets and then sell then at a higher price. Duh, guess what ???
The six week window of higher prices was all the banks needed to reset “market value” of these foreclosed assets and resell them to someone with more vcash and a stronger balance sheet.
Another leg down, or two should complete the cycle, before the bottom false out completely; because remember, someone here said that oil could fall to as low as $7 a bbl if no agreement could be reached between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Who was that Masked Man ??? Its in the archives, of course. 🙂
Oil is at the price it should be right now. When it was at $200.00 a barrel we were being gouged.
Sgt.
Yes gouged but the small caps were being setup for the fall. Worked like a charm too. Pump, dump, buy the bones for pennies…
“Oil is at the price it should be right now.”
Not really. Based upon supply and demand it should be lower; maybe in the high twenties. (The likely next leg down without changes in market supply or price). The USA could function quite well at $50-60-70 dollars a barrel for oil & gas produced within the United States.
A smart President could FIX a support price for all oil & gas produced, sold, and used within the USA to develop these energy sources now, and use them before other forms of Alt energy renders them useless.
Excess production could be exported at world prices above that, when the glut disappears. Energy is a strategic resource and should be managed as such. This would make America TOTALLY self sufficient in energy.
Solar energy is now cheaper (and cleaner) than coal. The USA has 300 years worth of coal energy at current levels of use. It will never be developed unless Rumpelstiltskin can spin it into gold (or diamonds, or buckyballs). 🙂
Reminds me of that famous Bing Crosby(?) Song in the 1940’s called “we’re In the Shekkels”!! He kept repeatng were in the shekkels! over and over with a back ground singer chorus girls section singing it too…Them was the good ol days eh.