A lot of geology news has circled around the possibility of a supervolcano eruption that could wipe out humanity. And a new analysis is not very comforting, as scientists discover that the apocalyptic scenario may be much closer than they previously thought.
The largest super-eruptions are capable of covering entire continents in volcanic ash and changing weather patterns around the world for decades. And a new study suggests the next eruption of this magnitude could be sooner than was previously assumed.
Regular volcanic eruptions, such as the recent activity of Mount Agung in Bali, might be enough to close airports, but a super-eruption would have the potential to destroy human civilization as we know it. Like Mount Agung, one of the last known super eruptions also took place in Indonesia.
Scientists previously estimated that super-eruptions happen every 45,000-714,000 years, a length of time Professor Jonathan Rougier, statistician and lead author of the new study, describes as “comfortably longer than our civilization”. (Civilization is often dated to the time humans moved away from hunting and gathering and towards agriculture, around 12,000 years ago.) In the new Earth and Planetary Science Letters study by Professor Rougier and his team at the University of Bristol, they used a database of geological records to produce a new estimate of between 5,200 and 48,000 years, with a “best guess value” of 17,000 years. Although still a while from now, it could be much sooner than the 45,000 years conservative estimate from before.
“On balance, we have been slightly lucky not to experience any super-eruptions since then,” said Professor Rougier. He also took care to note that just because it’s already been roughly 20,000-30,000 years since the most recent super-eruption, doesn’t mean the next one is “right around the corner.”
“Nature is not that regular,” he said. “What we can say is that volcanoes are more threatening to our civilization than previously thought,” said Professor Rougier.
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Basically, we know nothing.
Mhmm
Ill be holding my breath for that
NOT
Imagine the effects of such an eruption – one super-eruption ala Oruanui eruption if it happened now. Say around a 10 degree drop in average worldwide temperatures for some 6 or so years? We’d not be worrying much about Kardashian butt sizes; other than, wondering how it’d taste coming off a BBQ pit.
Speculation, nothing more. We will know when it will blow when it blows.
Maybe…possibly….could….if…..might…..Really?
Ten years worth?
What happened to…….WILL….DEFINATELY…..
POSITIVELY…..THIS WEEK…..THIS YEAR…….???
Why is this site always predicting doom and other sites
do not. I like to be prepared, as do most people…..but
every day this same old drill?
We keep circling the wagons
and then…….NOTHING.
CRY WOLF…..too much?
Now this is more like SHTF stories instead of some halfbreed descendent of Buckwheat ! Your reader base don’t care about some nappy head ho .
That will stop global warming for a long time. These scare stories are pointless. A lot of bad things could happen But why bring them up unless you can offer a solution?
Hmmm, an eruption could possibly trigger the “three days of darkness”?
We’ll see!