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You Can’t Convince Me Otherwise
Yesterday, the IDF was able to retrieve valuable memos from meetings held by Hamas’ top leadership in the months leading up to the October 7thmassacre, and they revealed how their ability to read the West’s predictable nature works against the civilized world.
In the document, the top brass discussed possible dates to launch the attack and how to create false signals that would confuse the IDF’s intelligence – which has been filled with Harvard alums and liberal generals – about Hamas’ intent.
The more I study this topic, the more the term Westplaining becomes evident to me. This phrase is ingenious, and what it truly shows is that the West has fallen in love with itself so much that it rations and reasons only from its own point of view without even considering the other side.
What the meeting notes say is that the military training for the attack actually had to happen in broad daylight visibly and with plenty of noise so that the IDF would interpret that as Hamas building morale for its terrorists instead of as a real plan of action since no one would be stupid enough to show the enemy their strategy.
It worked like a charm. The reconnaissance reported that they saw Hamas training for a massive operation, and the generals dismissed it as a pipedream and felt that the enemy would never dare.
The stock market consensus works the same way!
The data comes out, and each person analyzes it according to a preconceived notion or idea that they have adopted instead of sticking to measurable facts.
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What I want to do is show you the facts and what they tell us, not what Wall Street, Main Street, or the mainstream media are narrating to you.
THE FACTS ARE WHAT THEY ARE
- The most reliable recession indicator is called the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, and it has NEVER sent a false signal. Whenever it flashes to say a recession is coming, it happens.
It is currently screaming recession, but because the stock markets are surging, it is difficult to isolate that mirage from the truth. Even so, the LEI also considers stocks as one of its 10 components!
In other words, even with record-high stock market indices, the LEI is well within recessionary territory, which explains why people feel so lousy about the economy even with unemployment rates so low.
Keep in mind that aside from the pandemic, the U.S. has not suffered from a recession since 2008!
- The second most reliable recession indicator, with only one false signal in 1967 (which was actually revised later), is also shouting recession, and that is the 10-year to 3-month yield spread inversion.
It’s extremely easy to dismiss these and say that the indicators are unreliable, dated, inaccurate, or that the world has changed, but I am not that naïve or careless.
I don't feel they're all flashing false signals, and I think the U.S. economy will enter a recession, so it’s time to prepare. On Sunday, the 25th, I will publish my recession playbook.
Keep in mind that the recession will force the Federal Reserve to drastically cut rates in an inflationary environment.
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