Market Skeptics is reporting that a food crisis in 2010 is inevitable, and it’s going global. In 2010 Food Crisis for Dummies Eric deCarbonnel discusses the impending disaster, how governments around the world will react, and what it means for food prices. And if you’re a skeptic, Mr. deCarbonnel provides a host of references from around the country and the world.
“If you read any economic, financial, or political analysis for 2010 that doesn’t mention the food shortage looming next year, throw it in the trash, as it is worthless. There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration.
The 2010 Food Crisis Means Financial Armageddon
Over the last two years, the world has faced a series of unprecedented financial crises: the collapse of the housing market, the freezing of the credit markets, the failure of Wall Street brokerage firms (Bear Stearns/Lehman Brothers), the failure of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the failure of AIG, Iceland’s economic collapse, the bankruptcy of the major auto manufacturers (General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler), etc… In the face of all these challenges, the demise of the dollar, derivative markets, and the modern international system of credit has been repeatedly forecasted and feared. However, all these doomsday scenarios have so far been proved false, and, despite tremendous chaos and losses, the global financial system has held together.
The 2010 Food Crisis is different. It is THE CRISIS. The one that makes all doomsday scenarios come true. The government bailouts and central bank interventions, which have held the financial world together during the last two years, will be powerless to prevent the 2010 Food Crisis from bringing the global financial system to its knees.
Financial crisis will kick into high gear
So far the crisis has been driven by the slow and steady increase in defaults on mortgages and other loans. This is about to change. What will drive the financial crisis in 2010 will be panic about food supplies and the dollar’s plunging value. Things will start moving fast.”
Remember what happened when the price of gas hit $4 and oil was selling at $140 a barrel? Some economic analysts suggest this was the straw that broke the camel’s back in 2008 and lead to a meltdown in the US stock markets. Imagine, for a minute, what happens to our economy if/when the price of food were to triple in a matter of a couple of months. All available funds that a family has would be directed to food supplies, bringing the rest of the economy to a virtual standstill. As deCarbonnel mentions, any such shortage in food would bring an almost immediate response from central banks around the world causing a possible total collapse of an already overinflated and weakened US Dollar.
We urge our readers to read the article in full and get informed, but for those who want the main bullets, here are some items for consideration:
Dynamics behind the crisis
“The world experienced a catastrophic fall in food production as a result of the financial crisis (low commodity prices and lack of credit) and adverse weather on a global scale.
Normally food prices should have already shot higher months ago, leading to lower food consumption and bringing the global food supply/demand situation back into balance. This never happened because the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), instead of adjusting production estimates down to reflect decreased production, adjusted estimates upwards to match increasing demand from china. In this way, the USDA has brought supply and demand back into balance (on paper) and temporarily delayed a rise in food prices by ensuring a catastrophe in 2010.”
Overconsumption
“The USDA—by manufacturing the data needed to keep supply and demand in balance—has ensured that agricultural commodities are incorrectly priced, which has lead to overconsumption and has guaranteed disaster next year when supplies run out.”
Lack of Awareness
“The world is blissful unaware that the greatest economic/financial/political crisis ever is a few months away. While it is understandable that general public has no knowledge of what is headed their way, that same ignorance on the part of professional analysts, economists, and other highly paid financial “experts†is mind boggling, as it takes only the tiniest bit of research to realize something is going critically wrong in agricultural market.”
Record Production or Record Production Losses?
“The USDA is terrorized by the implications of higher food prices for the US economy, most likely because it knows the immediate consequence of sharply higher food will be the collapse of the US Treasury market and the dollar, as desperate governments and central banks dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports. Fictitious USDA estimates should be seen as proof of the dire threat posed by higher food prices, as the USDA would not have turned its production estimates into a grotesque mockery of reality if it didn’t believe the alternative to be apocalyptic.”
“the media has been reporting two distinctly, contradicting realities. One of these realities is filled with record crops and plentiful supply, and the other is filled agricultural devastation and ruin. It has been a mad, frustrating experience to read about agricultural disasters and horrendous crop losses in virtually every state combined with predictions of a US record harvest, sometimes in the same article.”
“Farmers can’t be going bankrupt across the US thanks to the worst harvest season ever seen while at the same time producing the USDA’s Biggest Crop Ever! Someone is lying, and evidence supports the farmer’s story.”
We have often discussed the BS coming out of Washington and Wall Street in regards to the economic crisis. Does anyone have any doubt that the USDA would engage in the same wag the dog, doublespeak propaganda games as the rest of our leaders?
Mr. deCarbonnel seems to be on to something, and he has closely followed food production numbers for the last year, as evidenced on his blog Market Skeptics, so one must at least seriously consider what he has brought to light.
If he is correct in his assessment that global food production and storage is in a significant crisis, then perhaps holding some food reserves would be in order.
If you’re hoarding gold/silver, but have failed to build your food reserves, remember this: you can’t eat your gold! And chances are, if the SHTF and there is no food on store shelves, no one will want to trade the most precious of commodities for gold or silver, especially at the onset of a food crisis.
Eric deCarbonnel’s warning for concerned readers:
“The true financial crisis begins when the world realizes that there are couple months food supply missing from 2010. The last two years were a gentle, mild preview of the real thing…”
“The sudden, shocking discovery that food supplies are running out will produce total panic. The reaction will be inventory building — hoarding –at all levels. Major food producing nations will export bans (India has already banned food exports). Producers, Middlemen, And Households will rush the acquire supplies. All this hoarding will worsen the crisis by throwing supply and demand further out of balance: export bans cut supply available on international market and inventory building increases demand. Food prices will more than double.
There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur next year. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…”
For a complete review of the coming 2010 Food Crisis, including references and news stories related to food production, USDA Disaster areas and ways to protect yourself, visit Market Skeptics and read the full article: 2010 Food Crisis for Dummies
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I was extremely interested in reading the 2010 Food Crisis post as Food Security is something I often ponder as an inevitable, brewing crisis.
I followed your link to Market Skeptics. Call me skeptical of Market Skeptics. While the article has an alarming tone, it was devoid of anything that struck me as clearly supportive of his thesis.
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The author throws in a color-coded map on crop conditions but it’s now December – there are no crops. Harvest is long-done in the Northern hemisphere (at least with the grains). Everything is either with end-users or in storage. The quantity is known. As a former floor guy @ CBOT, I thought to check futures (which I haven’t been looking at much lately). Prices are what I might describe as average in wheat & corn and a little higher than average in beans @ $10-11/bushel. However, considering the recent large decline in the dollar, I was surprised beans weren’t in the teens. Therefore, futures markets are not indicating significant supply tightening. And much like the securities industry, commodity analysts do their own crop surveys, weather forcasts, factor in other socio-political effects, etc. That USDA might be unduly optimistic does not soley determine today’s prices. Markets are now looking at conditions in Latin
America – the next harvest.
Then he’s got the big table of (I think it’s) USDA harvest expectations. Again, since it’s December, harvest is KNOWN, I don’t really see the relevevance of an earlier forecast. but to humor him, I went thru the forecast and the big percentage differences were with the marginally productive states. The Big Guys ( IA, IL,WS,MN,SD,ND,KS) were basically alligned with their 5 yr avg. The aggregate total estimate is (was) only 10% above the 5 year avg. Not what I would  characterize as an unduly aggressive forecast. Relevance notwithstanding, I felt therefore that this data set was significantly mischaracterized.
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It also bugged me that the author quoted an IA extension agent talking about adverse, wet conditions…..BACK IN JUNE. It would only take two weeks of hot, dry & breezy days for the same area to begin showing stressed conditions. Now I don’t know how last season unfolded in this particular part of IA to know with certainty that this is actually misleading – but feel it was used merely to support the author’s alarmist tone.
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So those are my key points on the article – He COULD be right but the article , as such, is crap. So I turned my attention to the author. A sufficiently robust CV could offset some of my perceived shortcomings with the article.
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If you go to the Market Skeptics ‘About’ page, the first thing you see is the fellow says he’s in Russia setting up a “Russian Agriculture Fund”. To say he’s a little short on the details of the proposed fund is to put it mildly. He is effectively soliciting money but has not indicated ANY parameters, guidlines, what have you as to how that money will be run. Any time solicitation of money enters the equation, readers should react as they would if they were walking on a frozen lake here in TheNorth and heard cracking noises. It’s possible the noise is from the ice expanding, getting thicker. However, the alternate possiblility, well, start running for shore!
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If you click his resume it doesn’t display properly, which I find surprising for someone who’s completed (any) computer science curriculum. The CV says he received a BA in accounting in ’08 yet he makesno mention of being CPA. He also says he’s full-time on the blog, supported by advertising. I’m sure you know better than I how difficult it is to reach a critical mass that would be supporting, let alone retain it.
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So let me sum up this long, rambling mess: while the author of Market Skeptics is covering topics from a perspective that I am personally alligned with, his arguments (at least on this post and the Russian Fund pitch) are anorexically thin and could be seen as conflicted & self-serving -  consider he says he’s raising money for a fund. His background that’s available on his site suggests he’s an unemployed 27 yr old living with affluent parents, who perhaps has failed the CPA exam. He may have a lot of free time to spend gleaning the general themes of the doom & gloom crowd (us), from which he then amps-up to some greater state of frenzy either because he sincerely believes it or merely in order to garner attention.
One other thing I noticed that I found amusing (I don’t know if it’s true but still grinned at the prospect) is that most of his more gushing complimentary comments sound to me like they were written by the same ‘Anonymous’ person……
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There were a few other somewhat funny things….characterizing Russia as a ‘safe’ investment environment was a hoot;Â and the cheap farmland in Russia…what about Ukraine? Land is REALLY cheap in Chernobyl PLUS your crops arrive already irradiated!
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And if you REALLY want to get ahead of the food security crowd, why not Antarctica? Global warming and all…..
More seriously, Latin America is where the Syndicates have been really rocking in ags. They’re consistently generating 15-20% returns. If you’re thinking climate change, merely go south for colder forecasts, north for warmer……Or better yet, stay put and figure out how to manage whatever nature sends your
way right at home…
While there is no doubt opportunity in Russian agriculture exists, for ages they’ve had the whole Transport problem – if you can grow it & harvest it, you still can’t easily get it to market. The political situation continues to be problematic as well.
FWIW
Tom thank you for taking the time to detail your thoughts. I think you have provided a very strong counter-balance to the alarming nature of this article. Because I am not an agriculture expert, I have to acquire my information from sources like deCarbonnel and yourself. As I am confident that you have nothing to gain from pointing out the discrepancies in Market Skeptics’ analysis, I fully respect your assessment here.
In regards to the Russian fund, Mr. deCarbonnel was actually talking about this topic earlier this year. In an article on May 5 where he discusses Investing in Russian Agriculture, I actually posted a comment with some thoughts on Russia:
One may disagree with me, but read a little about the aluminum wars in Russia over the last couple of decades and you’ll see how dangerous being a business man in Russia can get.
just MHO. Thanks.
That was back in May. Today I am even more skeptical about investing in Russia, in any capacity. Russian corruption makes DC look like child’s play. Any Russian with money and intelligence is getting the heck out of there right now because of the policies being instituted. They are shifting, quite rapidly, back to what it was before 1989. It’s sad, but it’s true. The Russian government has always ruled with an iron fist, and they will continue to rule with an iron fist. It seems to be ingrained in Russian DNA. At this time, and until something changes, I would avoid Russia like the plague.
Going back to the 2010 Food Crisis article, it is my view that a host of issues could cause a food crisis. As you have outlined, there may not be a supply issue here, so let’s just rule this out for the sake of argument. The other possibility is that the US Dollar continues to weaken, and we actually have a food crisis play out in the “reverse” of what deCarbonnel suggests, meaning that instead of a food crisis causing hyperinflation, it is hyperinflation that causes the food crisis. A possibility is that the dollar weakens so significantly that we have an Icelandic style monetary crisis which would destroy our ability to import food from other nations because those nations would be afraid to take dollars in settlement. Additionally, if the currency were to collapse, the price of food (and other goods) would sky rocket, and a hyperinflationary scenario as discussed in Hyperinflationary Depression – No Way of Avoiding Financial Armageddon would play out. Food would be one of the first goods to get gobbled up in a panic like this.
That being said, I am not increasing the speed and volume of food procurement at this time. For the last 18 months we have been steadily building a food reserve, and will continue to do so on a monthly basis, as before. Shifting my focus totally on food acquisition would be detrimental to my other “prepping”, and I don’t feel as if we have hit a point of no return on food stuffs just yet. My point in this article about acquiring food instead of precious metals was to advise readers that a diversified approach to prepping be taken. Instead of solely acquiring gold/silver, I am suggesting that preppers acquire food and other supplies along with their PM’s.
Tom, thanks again for your informed comments and research. I know that you are just as concerned about maintaining adequate personal food reserves and security as I am, so your opinions, in my view, are objectively constructed in the comment above.
There is a lot of information out there, and our goal here at SHTF Plan is to get as much of the truth as possible. We are fortunate, in this case, to have someone like you with background knowledge in agriculture share their views.
Thanks TOTN!
Mac
TomOfTheNorth,
Thanks for taking time to read through the data and the author’s info and provide detailed analysis of both in your comment.
The North American grain crop is in deed a known as you wrote. It’s sitting in grain silos across the country. Since the USA is one of the top grain exporters in the world we can hope in a food crisis that the government would halt the export of grain and redirect it to internal markets. In a food crisis they would also halt the use of grain to create biofuels if they are reasonable. Seems that China and India have enough people to eat the planet and still be hungry afterward, but that is their own problem. We have to feed Americans first. And, we desperately need Mother Nature to bring the human population into balance with sustainable resources before China and India really do eat the whole planet. As there standard of living increases we are in danger of them do just that.
Mac Slavo if the scenario unfoldes as you wrote where hyperinflation drove up fuel costs so that importing foods becomes prohibitively expensive things could unfold as follows. The USA produces more than enough grain for domestic use. If we could not import food maybe we would run out of fresh veggies and fruit during the winter and spring months only. My family always gives fruit and nuts to each other at Christmas time because it is a tradition. I never knew the basis of the tradition, but recently researching the 1930s gave me a clue. Apparently, people greatly anticipated the gift of oranges and nuts at Christmas time because they were so expensive during the winter months back in the day.
If fresh veggies and fruit and nuts become prohibitively expensive again just like when my grandparents were young people will adapt just like they did back then. I think that’s perfectly okay if people go back to eating seasonally again.
I just imagine that if our grain was redirected for domestic use only then we would be able to produce enough meat, milk, eggs, flour, and all the wheat and corn related products to feed the USA. The people in cities will enjoy fresh veggies and fruit once they become available again.
I live in a large urban area and about 60% of my preps have been to stockpile food. I’m visiting my family in the middle part of the USA and was reminded of a different mind set here (where I am now). Back in my urban life I am so concerned with the coming collapse of the economy, urban survival skills, and preps. Here at my parent’s house they have a pantry and closets filled with home grown veggies, berries, and fruit that they have canned in mason jars for use during the winter or made into jam. The freezer if filled with corn. They have a big garden every year and could easily go back to raising chickens for meat and eggs any time they want. Most men here own guns and seasonal hunting for deer and wild turkeys is popular. The people in this area live in abundance. No matter what happens to the national economy the people in the community will have enough food–at least no one will allow anyone they know to starve.
For the urban dwellers who do no plan and prep food options might become restricted. We’ll moan about not having the diversity of options we are use to having but the government could insure grain-related products to feed it’s people.
With rising costs of groceries one segment of the population who is more educated about nutrition will zero in on the most nutrient dense foods (most nutrient bang for your buck) and there’s the other segment of the population who will go for the McDonald’s $1 menu items because it’s cheap food.
If people can’t have fresh veggies and fruit in winter anymore they will adapt after a few seasons. They will start victory gardens, roof-top gardens, and saving for winter, or just do without. I’m totally okay with foods becoming more seasonal. It’s something to look forward to a fresh orange with anticipate, for example, rather than take it for granted. People are just spoiled, that’s all. The climatic zones in the USA are diverse enough that we can feed out own. The rest of rest of the world can sort out their own problems.
All this to say that in my urban setting we have to prep, prep, prep, but in my parent’s community, just by the way most people live their lives, they would be insulated from the harshest aspects of any predicted food crisis. Maybe this whole topic is just something investors and urban dwellers worry about?
All these people predicting this crazy stuff all have an agenda. People need to remember that as well.Â
hi Jon -Â most folks express genuine concern without an agenda. When money is involved however, you need to be less accepting and more analytical.
hi Greg- I want to reiterate that my comment was narrowly focused on the Market Skeptics post, not on the broader  question of food security – which I consider an important & universally valid topic. We absolutely could have a food crisis at any time – the historical precedents exist and additional theoretical scenarios are far from Black Swans – they are rationally considered possible if not probable. While I agree with your assesment that an urban setting poses special tactical challenges for procuring & maintaining some semblance of  food security, I can think of a number of historical occurrences that have rendered the rural dweller more at-risk than their urban counterparts, particularly in terms of a ‘fall-back’ as well as emergency response. I’m noodling on some ideas for a general ‘security’ discussion that Mac & I have been chatting about. Something should be forthcoming in a week or so. I’m looking forward to hearing more about your situation & ideas as we dig into this topic in earnest!
Mac,
re: Russia, excellent comment! re: your points on inflation, currency debasement and other structural economic dangers, while those issues are headlining today, they far from the only dangers we face in terms of food security. You had an excellent post on the impact in the event of a loss of our trucking system. And I like to point at Katrina? Predicted well in advance, yet the emergency response was abominable for a relatively small urban population. Consider a larger scale happening. Now consider a larger scale happening in a number of locations at the same time…….
Although it’s fiction this is a good read.http://gunrights4usall.blogspot.com/2009/11/frightening-future-for-our-nation.html
Great info tom of the north & Greg , Let me point out somthing that I beleave WILL happen during the comming food crisis.
 Our glorious leader in Washington will stick his socialist nose into this and will more than likely do the following :
1. Everyone will be under MARTIAL LAW with no exceptions unless you are a local MAYOR or other Govt. official !
2. NO Hoarding of anykind ! If you have extra food you will turn it in to local officials forthwith ! Thay will arrest some poor boob to make a point of it and he will end up in a fema camp!
3. Anyone who is growing fresh veggies in a garden WILL be REQUIRED to share those veggies with there neighbors ! This sounds harmless until you start growing your own garden and realize that its back breaking labor and that you will have to give most of what you grow away to someone else who did not help you grow it ! (Socialism) So don’t expect to can or preserve  any of it .
3. And with travel restrictions don’t expect to go to the country side to live at the vacation home you may have or go to the “lake” home
4 Hunting and fishing seasons will be cancelled so no harvesting of wild game . Besides that hunting and fishing by all the starving folks would deplete the wild game in just a few weeks anyway.
5 gun consfication will be in effect as well
6 and of course everyone will rat on everyone else to get a “Reward” so don’t expect to keep any secrets.Â
Not a happy picture is it? Well that is what I see happening , God help us all.
All of the things I was going to write, TomOfTheNorth covered and more. There just aren’t enough warning signs to support the premise that we’re just a few months away from a food shortage.
In the long term I do agree with the issues that will present themselves from high population countries that continue to grow (e.g. China). Can this planet support another doubling of the population? I’m not so sure. At least not with current food production levels.
I feel that global climate changes will create food scarcity and it will be felt firstly in Asia. The problem will hit China the hardest and will result in Dollar going down further.
I personally read a USDA report from back in JuneJuly of this year: Our US Government sold all our reserves of grain, linseed oil, and cotton. The Fed. Gov. has no storage. China bought it all. So DON’T RELY ON YOUR GOVERNMENT to feed you in a pinch.
With so many Obese People in western countries it will do them good to go hungry for a while.
I can’t believe that USA would not be able to feed itself over time, current food cisis or not.
Corn and Wheat are down 50% since june 08, Soy trending up but still down 30% since peak, Hogs down since 1997, cattle trend down. Sugar going up strongly but that is not a food…maybe thats why there are so many fat wombats out there!
This is an interesting guy. i just found him tonight. He says the following at http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/12/forecast-2010.html
One big new subplot in world politics this year may be the global food shortage that is shaping up as a result of spectacular crop failures in most of the major farming regions of the world. The American grain belt was hit by cold and wet weather and the harvest was a disaster, especially for soybeans, of which the USA produces at least three-quarters of the world’s supply. Crops have also failed in Northern China’s wheat-growing region, in Australia, Argentina, and India. The result may range from extremely high food prices in the developed world to starvation in other places, leading to grave political instability and desperate fights over resources. We’ll have an idea where this is leading by springtime. It maybe the most potent sub-plot in the story for 2010.
Greetings! I followed this article with great interest, as I’ve been involved in horticulture as well as writing social and political commentary for more than forty years.
Some of you may have read my article “It’s Time to Again Ask: Who Will Feed China?” which appeared at AxisofLogic.com on 23 May 2004, and later on a number of Internet sites.
What I wrote then is what I still see as what will happen: ” The advocates of “Free Trade” and global corporatism who are in these markets, giants such as Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland, say that prices will rise to where those that have will get, and those that don’t, won’t. The neoconservatives’ beloved Social Darwinism raises its New World Disorder head, as the Godzilla of food prices rises equally for the rich and the poor alike.”
The USofA will insist that “free markets” are the best determinant of distribution, so the most likely outcome will be this: “Now we arrive at the crux of our problem: thanks to its US dollar wealth, China can easily outbid other nations in a “free world” auction of remaining foodstocks. No more starving Chinese to take our table scraps! They’ll eat the pricey food that our domestic poor can’t afford!”
The immensely debt-laden US must sell to earn what it can to pay its bills, even if millions suffer domestically. It did so in the last Great Depression, following advice from capitalist advisers to burn butter, machine gun and bury cattle, etc., to raise prices through increased scarcity, to “benefit” the farmers, the first class of people to collapse before the onset of the Depression. It’s happened before; it can happen again. So it goes….
What global warming produces is erratic weather. So we are seeing more extremes of weather that affect agriculture around the world. The advantage of global warming for America is it gives us a longer growing season, but the downside is storms and droughts.
Meanwhile, I have been reading all the financial web sites, and many lean towards commodity inflation–that’s because investors don’t trust stocks. So now we’ll have speculation and bad weather combining to drive up prices.
Two months ago I saw several sites predict sugar shortages. Sure enough, the price of a 5-lb bag of sugar has gone from $2.72 to $3.19. That’s an 18% jump. I did some stocking up prior to the price going up, but I wish I’d bought even more.
Another site recommended stocking up on vodka. You can use it for barter, it’s an antiseptic and a preservative–and no matter what happens next, you can always drink it.
Do not buy food it will be bad by the time crash happen. Buy gold and silver.. You will exchange it for food any time.. Read about world war 2.. You can get food if you got gold when SHTF
I was searching for weather type disasters and economic forecasts because I want to solidify a spiritual experience I had. You can read about here http://www.jrcarri.com/aboutus.html I have also written a book about my experience. This book is called, “As I Passed Him: a prophecy within our times.” By Juan R. Carrillo
My book concerns an upcoming and nearing tribulation, I dont doubt my spiritual experience but yet when I see life going as usual and read about a nearing food crisis it very much begins to solidify more and more. My book gives years and many other spiritual information for the spiritual survivalist. For those seeking material survival…there will be no where to go but to seek out God and surviving spiritually. It will be like “Noah’s great flood” in other words most everything will go.  My book can be found at http://www.LuLu.com just search for it there under my title and name.Â