This article was originally published by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge.
Earlier today we reported that at least when it comes to spending at restaurants, the stimulus effect was wearing off. But while that may have been true in January, in February things appear to be picking up.
According to the latest data based on aggregated BAC credit and debit card data, spending jumped by a brisk 9.7% Y/Y for the 7 days ending Feb 6th, which means that since the beginning of the year, total card spending is running at an average of 5.6% Y/Y pace, up notably from the Dec average of 2.5% yoy as a new round of stimulus checks is being spent.
A look at spending by geography, there was a particularly large gain in card spending in California with total card spending of 9.5% yoy for the 7-days ending Feb 6th, up from -1.1% yoy the week prior.
The gain was driven in part by brick &mortar (B&M) retail and restaurant spending, which likely reflect the easing of COVID-related restrictions in the state.
While spending in California jumped, the Northeast was hit by a major snowstorm on Feb 1st, resulting in a noticeable pullback in spending in NY, NJ, and PA – total card spending contracted yoy on Feb 1st when the rest of the country saw little change in trend.
There was also meaningful strength in apparel and furniture spending in CA. As a result of the strength in CA, card spending in all of the major 20 MSAs is now positive yoy
Additionally, there was a meaningful improvement in higher-income spending, which could reflect greater engagement in leisure spending.
Looking at the components, retail sales ex-autos increased 4.6% mom SA, offsetting the last three months of declines on a mom basis. The gain was driven by discretionary spending – department stores, furniture, and clothing – which we found to be supported by stimulus payments. On the other side, there was a meaningful drop in card spending on airlines, showing a weakening in airline bookings following the holidays.
An interesting, if expected, divergence emerges when looking at restaurant spending in states with and without dining restrictions.
BofA also looked at data on returns, where it observed normal trends with the exception of furniture and building materials which were elevated, potentially reflecting a shift toward online shopping and flexible return policies amid a strong housing market
Finally, looking at the monthly average, BofA finds that retail sales ex-autos increased an impressive 4.6% M/M seasonally adjusted for January, setting up for what the bank expects will be a blockbuster Retail Sales report next week on February 17th.
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somebody seems to be hogging this site for their own objective instead of repling to the subject at hand……just sayin….
One look at the comment section and it’s pretty obvious what needs to be done…
Site needs active mods..
Yeah it’s past time for mods to intervene and clean up the comments section because it’s a total mess, and has been for quite some time now.
I just scroll past –the content is way above my pay grade anyhow.
You Federal and State freaks leave a person with nothing left but credit after locking them down without a job. What the hell do you expect a person to do? Here’s what I would do – run up all my credit cards to max and file bankruptcy. When people lose everything, they have nothing else to lose! What are you going to do? Take away my birthday?
Andrea.Iravani – Fake name – keep it succinct and to the point!
BofA rats their customers out to the feds. If you have BofA get rid of them ASAP! Besides being the worst bank on earth…
You’re trying to correlate price rises and drops, in separate industries, but these line graphs won’t align.
It would be more useful, if your x vectors had the same start/stop points and used like measurements.
As when working with incompatible fractions, and you find the common denominator.
Spending up? Yes firearms, ammunition, food and other gear, you better believe it.
The days of shtfplan don’t always come thru qhen I try to pull them up. I use duckduckgo