Niall Ferguson discusses the possibility of a rapid collapse as opposed to a protracted event in a LA Times opinion piece:
For centuries, historians, political theorists, anthropologists and the public have tended to think about the political process in seasonal, cyclical terms. From Polybius to Paul Kennedy, from ancient Rome to imperial Britain, we discern a rhythm to history. Great powers, like great men, are born, rise, reign and then gradually wane. No matter whether civilizations decline culturally, economically or ecologically, their downfalls are protracted.
—
But what if history is not cyclical and slow-moving but arrhythmic — at times almost stationary but also capable of accelerating suddenly, like a sports car? What if collapse does not arrive over a number of centuries but comes suddenly, like a thief in the night?
Great powers are complex systems, made up of a very large number of interacting components that are asymmetrically organized, which means their construction more resembles a termite hill than an Egyptian pyramid. They operate somewhere between order and disorder. Such systems can appear to operate quite stably for some time; they seem to be in equilibrium but are, in fact, constantly adapting. But there comes a moment when complex systems “go critical.” A very small trigger can set off a “phase transition” from a benign equilibrium to a crisis — a single grain of sand causes a whole pile to collapse.
Related Reading: What if the doomers are wrong?
Hat tip Willie Wonka
It Took 22 Years to Get to This Point
Speaking to author and podcaster Dana Parish, former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention...
The United States just made a decision that could lead to World War 3. The current ruling class...
Russia has just announced that conscription in the former Soviet Union is "unnecessary" as...
This article was originally published by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse Blog. This...
Commenting Policy:
Some comments on this web site are automatically moderated through our Spam protection systems. Please be patient if your comment isn’t immediately available. We’re not trying to censor you, the system just wants to make sure you’re not a robot posting random spam.
This website thrives because of its community. While we support lively debates and understand that people get excited, frustrated or angry at times, we ask that the conversation remain civil. Racism, to include any religious affiliation, will not be tolerated on this site, including the disparagement of people in the comments section.
Heck yeah it will , when the dominos start to fall it will go fast, By the time everybody gets the idea that this is the big one its going to be too late for most folks . The Banks will close and those that need their  money will be out of luck . Thats when the bad things start to happen . Riots,  looting , Robberys , Murders . And then Martial law . All we have to do is look what happened during Katrina and how the state and local Goverments handeled that fiasco and compound it by 50 states .
Comments…..The reason why the US is falling is because commies like Ferguson have bankrupted California by allowing illegals to overwhelm the infrastructure. We need to throw the socialists and commies out of office and replace them with citizens who love their country.
Did any of you read the post (on another blog) yesterday that Citibank is scheduled to send out letters to account holders that as of April 1, 2010 the reserve the right to require any account holder to provide a week’s notice, in writing, before moving funds from their account? Now what do they know that they aren’t telling??? Sound like the banks in Greece, maybe??? The unrest and riots will be starting not long after they put that into effect, I’m sure. Talk about close to the edge…
I tried to find the article I was reading last night, and instead found a blog, Letters from Mr. Sunshine, with more information. Citibank has stated that the letter was required by regulation due to a change in FDIC coverage and some of the banks’ NOW accounts. They said they don’t really intend to use the option of requiring written notice before withdrawal of funds. Hmmm…
see it at http://www.lettersfrommrsunshine.blogspot.com
Just wanted to make sure my info was correct…
The United States will Collapse in ONE day. It will only take ONE event. The  Banks will close in ONE day. The rest is history.
Yep – and martial law will commence, and TEOTWAWKI will arrive. And so many are totally unprepared…
Comments…..Every nation has it’s destiny, the end can neither be hastened or delayed. Every man saves himself by his faith which leads to foresight. Better start building your boat for the flood of disaster is almost upon us.God help those who don’t know when and how.
I believe Ferguson may be talking about chaotic systems, where a closed system can oscillate between order and disorder just through a tiny, almost imperceptible change in one of its inputs. I have studied the science to some degree and it is fascinating stuff.
Comments…..The U.S. is not going to end in an instant as some of you believe, that would be too easy, and the least painful. The country is heading into a civil war. These type of wars resemble a fire, they start out small, with a very slight spark, then pick up pace and rage on, then simmer to a halt. It’s a long painful process.The ones the suffer the most are the ones who live in the city, heavily concentrated areas turn to absolute chaos. The more isolation, and distance you keep from the mob the better chance of survival.
Right you are Sam. America will not fall. The money may collapse. The markets may collapse. And the Administration at that time may collapse. Maybe even THIS administration will collapse. But America will not fall. Because America is an ideal of what is best about the Rule of Law and Self Determination. We will take our country back and eliminate those who have threatened our life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness by perverting government for their own self interests.
We WILL have a New Birth Of Freedom …. a New BURST of Freedom: after the financial collapse, after civil strife, and after the Democrat and Republican Parties have been ERASED from the political landscape as entities of institutionalized corruption. They are all crimminals and should be treated as such. Like the Communist Party, these political parties should be outlawed and their leaders jailed ….. at best.
But unless there is blood on the streets of America again, as there was against the Viet Nam War, and during the Civil Rights Movement, the political and financial elite of this nation will continue to turn a blind eye and a deaf ear to the vast majority of Americans who struggle each day for their daily bread.
Americans deserve and must demand better government, equal justice, and financial opportunities for all, instead of the few on Wall Street, those who are part of the military industrial complex, or those who are federal and state bureaucrats.
Scores of “officers” are eating out our substance. Government is full of traitors to the American ideal and to the American people. They are self serving. They no longer represent US. They represent themselves, their party, and their lobbyists. They are crimminals, traitors, and whores (but even whores sell only that which belongs to them) and should be prosecuted accordingly. And if their crime be treason ……
Lets start with Charlie Wrangle! Make an example of that bastard and the rest will get the message! “We are NOT going to take this crap anymore!”
I’ve got mine. I have been prepping for quite some time and I can live indefinitely during the CHANGES. So frankly, it pleases me no end that when the CHANGES come, it will be New York and DC that will be the hardest hit. So I am not worried that the army will come for my gold and my guns, the army will have their hands full guarding New York City and DC and trying in vain to protect the bastards that started this mess from the residents of those cities.
What goes around comes around.
Comments…..The one thing you must realize is when the currency collapses and hell breaks loose, generally the government loses control of all it’s institutions. The whole co-op system fails, which usually leads to the fall and resolution of the army itself.When this happened in other countries, I saw the well trained army boys join private militia, or stay close to home and support family and friends.In the case of America when the whole logistical apparatus fails, so will all the support lines to the different parts of the world. Those who get caught behind enemy lines (even though they are not the enemy)will be slaughtered. Travel the world and see how many people love americans. As far as internally remember these people serving in the army, are your brothers and sisters and cousins, they will make the right decision and serve family first. You will see lots of them traumatized by war, and will not be abel to recognize friend from foe back home because that is the environment they served in for a long time.Remember when SHTF there is no longer rules of war, it’s every man for himself. Survival of the fittest applies to both animal and man,animal by brute force, man by faith.
Sam I agree. the thing about our nation is that we are a cluster fuck nation. We have gangbanger,communist,anarchist,neo chicano marxist, racist militias(La Raza,KKK,Black Panther party), the good militias who stand for freedom(Michigan Militia,Texas Militia), who all have guns. My worst fear we will have a multifactional ethnic  civil war. When the SHTF my best bet is that 75% of the military will defect to the side of the people. Then the government will pass a draft to fight off the “domestic terrorist”. its going to be very bloody and america will be balkanized and divided. every major city in america with a population over 100,000 will be like Mogadishu or grozny.
We’re in deep dark trouble because we’ve decided to go the same route as the Roman Empire did. Â We just skipped over the whole lasting for 2000 years thing and went straight to the end.
1; Â we no longer produce goods in any real quantity anymore.
2; Â we have outsourced our defense needs. Â We keep a few in uniform to make ourselves feel better, but the fact is, we don’t have near enough. Â We’re about to be forced to abandon Iraq and Afganistan (in the next 1-3 years). Â Pathetic. Â No wonder we always lose to the chinese in the war games.
3; Â We have no meaningful energy policy. Â We import huge quantities of cheap oil. Â When the cheap oil runs out (approx 30 years out), or gets cut off (see 1970’s oil embargo), we’re fucked. Â the grocery store has 5 days worth of food on the shelves. Â How long till the islamic crazies get sick of us and cut off the oil? Â In spite of this, there is no serious effort to get off oil.
4; Â We owe everybody money. Â In the 1970’s, we were the biggest LENDER nation in the world. Â Now, we are the biggest DEBTOR nation. Â We have become a dead-beat nation. Â Pretty soon, these other nations are going to decide to shut off our credit. Â Economic collapse follows approx 20 minutes later.
So there you go. Â We don’t make our own goods, we can’t keep up our military commitments, we can’t fuel our economy or our machinery on our own, and we owe everyone money. Â We’re like a doper who tries to get off dope by getting ever bigger and bigger bags of dope and saying “this time I’m really gonna quit” before we shoot up each one.
Comments…..There is some difference between Rome and The US. Rome lasted 1200years 750BC-551AD in the  west and 2200 years in the east, remember Constantinople did not fall to the turks till the 1500’s.The US won’t surpass 250 years. What makes a country great is it’s people , the education they cultivate. As a Roman you had to study the seven liberal arts, Logic, Rhetoric,Grammar,Music, Astronomy,Geometry, Arithmetic.To attain this knowledge meant you freed yourself from the darkness with in and you no longer only posses the animal qualities of just eat,sleep, and shit.Unlike the soda pop Nintendo obese generation of the US. Rome is labelled the eternal princess she is not dead, but will rise to power once more and play the role of Moses for the Gentiles.Pray as Virgil use to ( Where are your Rome to free me from my slavery) Economic debt ridden slave that is. Scripture teaches the fall and rise of Rome your class  room the opposite. Watch Europe take control of the world and bring about justice after the fall of the axis of evil, US. UK. Israel.
Strongly disagree with the idea that the military will collapse and dissolve during TEOTWAWKI. It is the one and only institution that will effectively survive. The Army, Marine Corp, and National Guard will be mustered to try to prevent chaos in the major cities; while the Navy and Air Force carry our national defense.
It’s one thing to refuse induction. iIs quite another matter to leave your post and desert, especially under Martial Law. There is such a thing as the UCMJ that will prevent troops from disbanding. The troops understand that and the military will house and feed them.
Still that won’t be enough to control the Eastern Seaboard from DC to New York , or the West Coast for that matter.  Inner city residents will go insane on both coasts. If you are reading this and live east of the Mississippi, pack your bag, it time to relocate and get a toe hold somewhere elese.
The chickens are coming home to roost.
Comments…..You make some good points. But don’t forget today the US has over 100 fully armed militia, when I say armed I mean better than the army it self, and well trained because some of the leaders were in the army. As for the rest of society the average hardware is 3-1. How is the army going to stand up against that,I agree with Augustin a lot of them will desert and join the different militia. Like I said earlier the logistics won’t be there to hold it together in order to house and feed them,and I doubt they will aim their guns at family and friends.I agree the army has rules, but militia’s, gangs, murauders, don’t. What about when these army boys find out their government has lied to them all those years. But as always time is the best teller of truth wait 6 years or so and we’ll all see the answer.
Comments…..Sam, the Axis of Evil is your fat ass, your fat mouth, and your bald head.
Thank the Lord that idiots like you and the rest of the posters on this board have no power to fuck up the world.
Comments…..Zukadu, better get back into your cave and don’t come out cause the homosexuals and Jews are all around you.
TED: I have nothing against jews or Israel. Don’t see how you and Ed can read that into anything I have written. As for the queers and fags that support Obama, I seem to have touched a VERY sensitive area for you and ED.
Maybe the two of you should get together and make some fags. Thats right, fags can’t reproduce with each other. FREAKS!!!!!!!
Comments…..Zukadu, see these two idiots is what I mentioned earilier about the well educated society of the US. They burned out all their brain cells drinking pop and playing nintendo while eating kentucky fried chicken. Such grease balls are the one’s you will see crying for mommy when SHTF. Oh by the way I’m not fat, and I have lot’s of hair and by the sounds of it looks like you have the fat mounth, I wonder do you have any teeth left.
Zukadu,
You have made some very good comments on other posts, I have to admit I’m surprised at your introduction of a non sequitur with a lot of fanfare and froth around it. It seems to be very sensitive to you too. And this kind of factionalism, no matter what group you are trying to box off and marginalize, is what will get us all in trouble. I’m disappointed.
@ zukadu
[quote]Americans deserve and must demand better government[/quote]
Isn’t government part of the problem in the first place?
And, once you got a ‘better’ government, how do you prevent it to get bad again?
In my opinion you don’t need a government at all.
They are like cancer.
They suck the life out of you.
Bleakonomics:  Ted and Ed started the PERSONAL attacks. I just responded to defend myself. Thats a basic right. Paticularly since they misrepresented my views.
I am not seeking to marginalize any group except for those politicians, bureaucrats, and banksters who have traded their loyalty to this country for greed, globalism, and self dealing at the expense of the American people.
John: Yeah, government is the problem. But we have to have some government, and like the Founding Fathers I believe the less government, the better. Much better. Much better is much less.
Government has forgotten that it is supposed to a servant to the public; which is why, on average, bureaucrats make almost twice as much as joe sixpack. As employers we pay them very well and expect them to perform. As consumers we can all agree that the product is defective and needs to be recalled.
Lets start with the FED!
We the people don’t want a revolution. We want mcdonalds and American idol. The country will keep going business as usual as long as the television stays on. Missles would be flying and soldiers marching in the streets, but who cares! I can’t miss the season finale of Lost. ….
France- you are sooo right. Brainwashed sheep. Check out you tube American Idiot.  ….People quit marching in the streets not long after the water was flouridated… any connection?